It was a bold statement in physical fitness to see Minister of Transportation Chibuike Amaechi, with former director general of NIMASA Dakuku Peterside, doing a sprint round Adokiye Amiesimaka Stadium in Port Harcourt on Saturday. The sprint was to “greet” supporters who were attending a thanksgiving service organised by the Rivers State chapter of APC. In this age when there is a lot of discussion about the age and health status of leaders, the sprint was a powerful statement. It was also telling that the man in charge of vehicles, trains, motorcycles and bicycles in Nigeria still had a taste for Footwagon.
Rivers APC’s thanksgiving was actually a beg-giving because Amaechi used the occasion to declare his intention to seek the presidency in next year’s election. That was courageous of him because with only a few weeks to go before the party primaries, top Buhari Administration officials who are nursing presidential and gubernatorial ambitions have been reluctant to jump into the fray. We can only guess why. The most prominent of them is Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, whose interest in running is a poorly-guarded secret. The hastily smuggled Electoral Act provision requiring appointed officials to resign before the primaries does not apply to him. When some media channels reported that he had “informed” President Buhari of his interest, the newest aspirational invention in this Republic, Osinbajo’s office denied it. What’s difficult there, since the Vice President’s office is only a few meters away from the president’s office in the same Villa?
Osinbajo should have openly started his quest by now because he has a political uphill task ahead of him, running against his former mentor Asiwaju Bola Tinubu. Some analysts see a moral dilemma there, but morality is a highly expendable commodity in Nigerian politics. The bigger problem is that Asiwaju is a formidable opponent, a highly visible presence on the national political scene since 1999 when most of his first generation-governor colleagues have since faded away. He already has the open support of many Southwest and Northern APC governors and is alleged to be very rich.
Osinbajo has another challenge which he must move quickly to overcome, the poorly-timed formation of a Directorate of Politics and Governance by the Redeemed Christian Church of God, RCCG, of which he is a senior pastor. Some people quickly put two and two together and said it is the church’s campaign office for Osinbajo. It might or it might not be, but I personally do not agree with the allegation that if he were to become president, Osinbajo would be a parochial one who favours his church above all other sects and religions. I think he is far too well educated and far too intelligent to do that. Allegations that he recruited most of his persona staff from church members have been denied but even if he did, I don’t think it is a good criticism because the Vice President has only a few aides to appoint, compared to the president, so the sample is too small for proper assessment. Besides, if he ever becomes president, open display of religious parochialism could speedily imperil his position in the party and the country.
The other Big Elephant who is still peeping through the door of the presidential race is Central Bank of Nigeria [CBN] Governor Godwin Emefiele. By now everybody in Nigeria believes that Emefiele is interested in running for president under APC’s platform, despite his denials. That is actually good because the first rule in politics is to be well known and your ambition to be well known. Why else should people print so many posters, hold costly Draft Emefiele rallies and even storm the APC convention with his posters, unless he gave them a secret green light?
Right from his days as Group Managing Director of Zenith Bank, Emefiele had always cast the image of a staid, non-controversial banker only interested in monetary affairs. He didn’t look one bit like a politician. But then, looks can be deceptive. Under his watch, CBN greatly expanded its role from monetary policy to deep involvement in agricultural production, industrial revival, small scale industry and even poverty alleviation. It created the appetite in Emefiele that he could apply this cold banker’s management skill on a wider plane. The provision that appointed officials must resign before the primaries applies to him, so Emefiele must decide if he wants to throw away the two remaining years of his second, five-year term in order to run for president.
Which brings me back to Amaechi. He said at his declaration that he has been a fixture on the elective and appointive Nigerian political scene since 1999. This Republic has cloaked six 4-year terms already. Amaechi was Speaker of Rivers State Assembly in the first two terms; Governor of Rivers State in the next two terms and Minister of Transportation in the third two! It is a double edged sword because while some people will say that is enough experience to become president, some other Nigerians will say, “You did all this and you still want more? Are you the only person in the country? Will you not allow other people to taste public office?”
Running round Adokie Amaesimeka Stadium was also a double edged historical sword. While it conveys to young Nigerians the image of personal fitness and dynamism, it reminds old timers of 1984, when the Reverend Jessy Jackson made the first serious run by a Black American for the Democratic Party’s presidential ticket. When Jackson visited American troops stationed in Germany, they broke into a chorus of “Run, Jesse, Run!” Jackson was however non-plussed; he said he didn’t want the chant of Run, Jesse, Run to become See Jesse Run! Minister, don’t permit opponents to use your sprint in Port Harcourt to illustrate See Amaechi Run!
Until last week, there was almost no presidential aspirant from the North in APC. Governor Yahaya Bello of Kogi State however waded in, throwing into doubt APC’s apparent stumble towards a Southern presidential candidate. Yahaya Bello’s biggest political qualification is that he is young, or at least he was eight years ago when he stumbled into the governorship by Divine design. He did a big splash at Eagle Square on the day he declared. Although I have seen videos of him on the social media doing Mike Tyson-style push-ups, he did not run around Eagle Square like Amaechi in order to prove his fitness for the top job. He might now consider a paratroop drop in order to outshine Amaechi.
What a difference a week makes in politics! Up until a week ago when it finally held its convention, APC looked like the stumbling elephant while PDP was racing along towards 2023 with the fleet feet of a gazelle. No longer. Rivers State Governor Nyesom Wike, thought to be PDP’s biggest power broker 2015, waded into the presidential race in Makurdi. While Governor Samuel Ortom looked askance, Wike regaled Benue PDP chieftains with much theatre, saying they should look for his name on the ballot and thumbprint it. Wike has been a very effective politician with many development projects in his kitty, but he also has a very abrasive character and a caustic tongue, which he needs to polish before the race gets very hot.
Wike was not present when some PDP governors from the South met in Abuja last week and restated their demand that the party must zone its presidential ticket to the South. Their demand lent credence to reports that PDP’s Ortom committee recommended an open contest for aspirants from all zones. Such a decision was almost inevitable because PDP left the decision until very late, put the cart before the horse by selling nomination forms before reaching a decision on zoning, and by appointing a committee with one member from each state and FCT. What else could such a committee agree on, apart from an open contest?
Southern PDP governors dressed up their demand for zoning to the region as high principle. They said it is to make for justice and equity. Truth however is that PDP leaders’ historical attitude to zoning has been one of opportunistic flip flop. In 2007 when their Northern colleagues pushed for a rotation to the North in line with a gentleman’s agreement, party chieftain Chief Tony Anenih denied there was such an agreement, despite minutes of a meeting that surfaced showing him as having pushed the position at a meeting in 2002, that Obasanjo should do two terms and the North should thereafter take over. In 2010, a PDP National Chairman was ousted because he said President Jonathan should only complete the late President Yar’adua’s tenure and a Northern candidate should complete the North’s eight years from 2011. PDP leaders monotonously said “Jonathan has a right” to contest in 2011 and again in 2015. On the flip side, PDP leaders did zone the ticket to the North in 2019, where all 12 aspirants who contested at its Port Harcourt convention were Northerners. So, this is not high principle but a mixed bag of flip flops.
