“Every door has its own key”. African proverb
By the time you read this, former US President Donald Trump would have appeared in court like a common criminal. Well, not exactly like a common criminal. Common criminals do not appear to answer to 39 serious federal indictments(charges), including espionage. He and his fanatical followers numbering millions say his trial is entirely political. So political, in fact, that Trump told a campaign caucus that things happening to him, to wit, a leading political opponent being prosecuted by a sitting president, resemble what happens in countries in the ‘third world’, the same countries he once equated with the most unflattering part of human anatomy. It will take months before we will know if Trump violated laws dealing with the handling of classified and sensitive documents. The 2024 presidential contest is likely to be about Trump’s trials. He is miles ahead of other Republican Party aspirants, including his former Vice President Mike Pence who came close to being injured or killed during the attempted coup on the 6th of January last year instigated by Trump. His supporters grow more fanatical and desperate to repudiate all and every accusation, including an earlier civil indictment for rape. He is likely to square up against President Biden who defeated him at the last election.
There could be a few third-world countries that conduct their affairs in a manner that entitles them to be offended by Trump’s characterization. A few more will look hard at their own characters and the state of the US and murmur some protest at the seeming insult, only because it comes from a man who should hold the record for trashing the US in the eyes of the world. Nigeria is not likely to bother to see in which category it belongs. We are too busy living lives on the margins of desperation and watching to see whether we will sink deeper or float to more comfortable grounds. Either way, America and Trump are not likely to be major reference points in our journey. America has discovered a covered chink in its armour since Trump emerged as a force in its politics. As candidate and President, he had put life into a huge chunk of America identified by its radical conservatism and an aggressive drive to entrench itself as the true America. It now stands at a crossroads: one direction invites it to stand behind Trump at all costs, while the other offers an uncertain future without him.
Nigerians are also at their own crossroads. There are prospects for real change in the direction of more security, less poverty and greater cohesion. Then there are also prospects for a future that will be a hostage of the past, and frittered hopes that will litter the path of recovery and make it more difficult to re-invent a country that works. At this stage, examples and models like the US and other advanced industrialized countries that hold up the democratic systems of government as the only option that works are unlikely to be inspiring reference points. Their own struggles to preserve many of the most hallowed values of democratic systems in their own countries show many weaknesses that lead to asking awkward questions about their values to themselves and the world. Even where they appear to survive damaging crises, their failure to influence us beyond periodic excursions to witness how our leadership selection processes merely dump powerful, rich and divisive leaders on populations, create distances that make it nearly impossible for them to influence us in positive ways.
Trump will go through his trials and may or may not survive them to contest for the Presidency of the US. Whatever happens, he would have succeeded in dragging America’s fault lines further. Here in Nigeria, the battle involves how much of the past we have to interrogate to see whether it will help the prospects of moving away from the damaging perception that all our leaders merely leave the country worse than they find them. As we speak, the immensely powerful Godwin Emefiele is under arrest. This, in itself, is not the good news. The good news will be that he will lead us to discover the elaborate network of monumental scams that have virtually drained the nation. Emefiele represents the key to unveiling poorly-covered official plunder that kept showing its head with our deepening poverty and a collapsing economy. The Managing Director of NNPC is also on suspension. Between CBN and NNPC, a lot of very powerful people, some of them key players in governance and the economy today. Will President Tinubu touch untouchables?
President Tinubu’s presidency will be judged by how much he is willing to do three things. First, he must muster the courage to interrogate the records of his predecessors, particularly in the management of our economic resources. Second, he must retrieve as much of what has been plundered and prosecute those responsible. Third, he must design a strong anti-corruption strategy and strengthen systems that will keep public assets away from the reach of elected and appointed officials. Politics must be separated from the processes of wealth accumulation. Now that he has the leadership of the legislature that he worked hard to get, what will do with it? Can he find Nigerians who value service above personal wealth to work with him? Will he lead the nation to find answers to the question of the reasons why only huge wealth gets power in Nigeria, and why the standards of governance keep getting worse with every administration?
Nigeria can create its own label in a world where systems and characters keep changing. This is defining moment for Nigeria. It can defy expectations that it will resume greater prominence among third-world countries, or chart a course that befits an African nation that can recover from major setbacks and builds itself a place of pride for its citizens and among the global community.
