By Haruna Ar-Rasheed, Gombe
Next month’s governorship race in Gombe State is going to be largely between the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP).
APC’s Governor Muhammadu Inuwa Yahaya, Muhammad Jibril Barde of the PDP and Khamisu Ahmed Mailantarki of the NNPP are the leading contenders in the race.
Of course, Inuwa has the incumbency factor advantage, while Barde secured his ticket after defeating five other opponents through a keenly contested primary.
After the PDP primary, crisis set in the party as Barde was abandoned to his devices by fellow contestants in the primary as they defected to other parties. These were heavy weight politicians who could have given Barde much muscle including the runner-up in the primary election, Jamil Isyaku Gwamna; former Gombe State Deputy Governor, Mr Charles Iliya and former commissioners during the administration of former Governor Ibrahim Hassan Dankwambo, among others.
The aggrieved politicians accused him of running his campaigns alone, to the detriment of the executives and other key members of the party. This might count against Barde during the election
Mailantarki was endorsed as the NNPP’s candidate at a stakeholders meeting, where the statutory delegates picked him as the consensus gubernatorial candidate, but the NNPP is not as strong as the other two, the APC and the PDP. Indeed it is a minus for Mailantarki.
Governor Inuwa (APC)
The incumbent governor has experience in governance having been Commissioner for Finance and Economic Development, for seven years during administration of former Governor Muhammad Danjuma Goje.
Having been in the saddle for the past three years, nine months, the incumbency factor is there to bolster his second term ambition. through.
Inuwa is believed to have performed well in terms of project execution despite not completing inherited projects. But he has built several road projects, including the Zainab Bulkachuwa Women and Children’s Hospital, and the multi-billion-naira Mega Motor factory started by Dankwambo. The incumbent has also initiated his own projects which include Network-Eleven-Hundreds, the administration plans to construct at least 100 kilometres of road in each of the 11 local government areas of the state.
The ongoing construction of the multi-billion-naira Muhammadu Buhari Industrial Park initiated by the Inuwa administration to make Gombe an economic-hub in the northeast sub-region is almost completed.
However, certain pertinent political issues stare Inuwa in the face. The people in the state and politicians even from the ruling party accuse the governor of not patronising them in projects and contracts awards, thus making his campaigners reluctant in going to the field.
Worse of all, he has lost four reliable allies in the state House of Assembly who lost the party’s ticket at the primary election to both PDP and NNPP.
All of this may have led to the sudden popularity of Mailantarki factor who analysts believe will make him scoop votes from the governor’s stronghold area of Gombe North and Gombe Central senatorial districts of the state.
Khamisu Mailantarki (NNPP)
Mailantarki still has that popularity that made him polled the largest votes scored by any of the 360 members of the House of Representatives in 2011, when he won election to represent the Gombe/Kwami/Funakaye Federal Constituency.
Mailantarki can as well cash in in the current internal crises within the APC and PDP. The APC is battling to contain the decamping of bigwigs over Governor Inuwa’s ‘stingy hand’. The PDP on the other hand has been enmeshed in crisis, following the aftermath of primary elections, thus making it a plus for Mailantarki
However, like Inuwa, Mailantarki also needs to do a lot of work for him to secure the seat despite many advantages that may aid him. The one-time member of the House of Representatives and his party need to do a lot of campaigning to sell his candidature especially that he is running for the seat under the platform of a new political party.
NNPP is an entirely new party in the state without a solid political structure. Also, the party did not field re-known politicians for other elective positions both in the state and national assembly seats.
So, as an “independent candidate,” Mailantarki needs to do a lot to get the support of the electorates.
Muhammad Barde (PDP)
Although Barde is new in the political terrain compare to Inuwa and Mailantarki, the PDP flag-bearer made a point in 2019 when he defeated prominent politicians that includes a former minister and onetime senator, to emerge as runner-up in the 2018 APC primary election that produced Governor Inuwa Yahaya. A technocrat cum politician, was behind the establishment of the fast-rising commercial bank, the SunTrust Bank.
He defected to the PDP and beat the likes of perennial governorship aspirants, Jamil Gwamna, to clinched the PDP’s ticket in a keenly contested primary election.
However, Barde has more challenges than Inuwa and Mailantarki. Apart from the external challenges, the PDP candidate has to do a lot of homework to get the support of the aggrieved members of PDP.
His emergence as gubernatorial candidate of PDP has generated controversy within the PDP. The circumstances that led to his emergence have compelled members of the party such as Gwamna, Charles Iliya and many more to leave the party.
What analysts say
The Head of Political Science Department at the Federal University of Kashere, Gombe, Dr Babayo Sule, stated that recent happenings in the political scene in the state has led to some changes and configurations on who may actually be the winner.
According to him, 2023 elections in the state are going to be an entirely different ball game.
He stated that it is not going to be business as usual in the state, where it is always either PDP or APC. Or like in 2007 and 2011 when it was PDP against itself, “because there was no strong contender and the party had nothing to fear.”
He said, “This time it is going to be a strong contest between three major political parties, the PDP, APC and the NNPP. And among the three, one cannot straight say this is the most powerful or the weakest.
“All these three gubernatorial candidates, Governor Inuwa Yahaya of APC, Jibril Barde of PDP and Khamisu Mailantarki of the NNPP, are all strong candidates and one cannot overrule the other because they have many factors that is assisting and aiding them.
“In Nigeria’s political contest, the incumbent always has advantage, because they have several appointees, the relatives of the appointees and others that are being influenced by the appointees and all may likely work for the party. Also, the incumbent has financial muscles to dispense. And apart from that, he has several tangible projects that are visible all over the state.
“Another unfolding event is the way the ruling party is embarking on rapid empowerment, allocating projects and going from home to home distributing money in the name of empowerment. And this is really going to win voters for the ruling party and be disadvantageous for the opposition,” he said.
However, Dr Sule observed that the ruling APC, especially at the national level has battered and suffered Nigerians beyond redemption, saying there is likelihood that many Nigerians will not likely vote for the APC at all levels because of that suffering.
“So, this is one of the negative aspects that will affect the incumbent. The second is the financial muscle that the incumbent will dispense is also being matched to some certain considerable level by the opposition, especially the PDP candidate.
“Also, there are revelations and unfolding events from the rural areas that most of the projects that people are showcasing, as the achievement of the government are lopsided in Gombe city. For example, some are saying that in places like Akko, Nafada, Kwami and other LGAs there are no projects to show from the present government. So, this is likely going to affect the chance of the government,” he said.
The political scientist further stated that the PDP on its part has some advantages that will propel the chances of the party’s candidate to win the election.
“Number one, he has the financial muscles. He has been going round the state meeting the stakeholders and doing several things like empowerment and other activities that need financial backing and he is penetrating both the rural and urban areas.
“Secondly, his party that was rejected in 2019 because of insecurity issues, corruption, economic collapse and infrastructure decay, is now being seen as doing better than the APC, a party that people sponsored with their money. In fact, people are thinking that if that is what the APC can offer, it is better if the PDP will come back because at least they have a better living standard under the party (PDP).
According to Sule, the presidential candidate of the PDP, Atiku Abubakar, who is from the sub-region is very powerful in the state, “in fact Gombe and other North eastern states is where the presidential candidate of the PDP will definitely sweep away with a very strong percentage of votes.
“And it is likely that the PDP candidate may win the presidential election. Therefore, if he wins the presidency, the APC will lose morale and at the state level, and the PDP candidate may have advantage to win the governorship seat.”
He, however, observed that apart from the internal crisis among the members of the PDP, Barde is not the favourite candidate even in his party, the PDP, “therefore this will count as a great disadvantage to him.”
Sule said “another issue is that there are some famous party members that are known for their loyalty to the PDP for the past 20 years and are now defecting to the NNPP, because of some allegation of lack of internal democracy in the PDP.”
Talking about the third candidate, Mailantarki, Dr Sule said he is not going to be written off, “in fact if I say he is going to win the election I will not be exaggerating, because it is no longer business as usual.
“The NNPP candidate has recently shown seriousness. In the past people were thinking that his candidature is a mere charade, that he is fronting for another party or candidate. But he is day by day probing those who are thinking like this wrong. And there are many who are neither happy with the ruling APC nor with the opposition PDP, taking them as one and the same.
“There category of people is looking for an alternative when suddenly the NNPP appears and they have now found a succour in him. That is why people are calling him ‘Raba Gardama,’ thinking he will give them a chance to try other options than the PDP and APC.
“Therefore, he is getting momentum not only in Gombe LGA where he hailed from, but in Gombe Central and Gombe South. Therefore, the traditional areas of Gombe south for the PDP and traditional areas of APC in the Gombe North and Centre are now considered to be areas where the APC candidate is going to have a larger share.
But the political scientist predicted that there is a possibility of re-run election which may likely occur in Gombe state, or the NNPP candidate may even pull a surprise. He is getting youths and receiving decampees from both the PDP and APC and all these are to his advantage.
On the area of disadvantage, Dr Sule stated that people are still thinking he is not as financially strong as the two other candidates.
“Although, people believe he is a good candidate, the dominance of PDP and APC made people think that if they vote for him, they are going to waste their votes, that he is not going to win. Because of this people may ignore him and decide to vote for either PDP or APC, which is a disadvantage to him.
“Other issue is that his party is not as strong and grounded as APC and PDP. And finally, the presidential candidate of his party, Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso may not influence his voting because Gombe is not his stronghold and lacks a base in the state. He is based in Kano and that was where people think is his limit and that is a great disadvantage to the governorship candidate of his party,” he said.
A political analyst, Hassan Abdullahi Yahaya, said all the three major politicians vying for the governorship seat are very strong candidates.
He said all the three major candidates have something to offer for the state, adding that 2023 has come with a drastic change in the state’s political scope.
“The three major candidates, the incumbent Governor Inuwa of APC, Jibril Barde of PDP and Khamisu Mailantarki of the NNPP are strong and all came from the Gombe metropolitan and have something to offer.
“But I think all the candidates have to be very careful because the INEC will use the provision of the electoral acts that stipulated that a candidate must win from the two-thirds of the total local government areas of the state.
“PDP is very strong in the southern part of the state. APC is strong in the state capital and some LGAs in the northern part of the state. While the NNPP have supporters in all the three zones of the state. Though many believe it is going to be a contest between PDP and APC, it is too early to say who will win.
“The governor’s wife is going to the LGAs to woo women voters and that may favour her husband. Because women played a role in the 2019 election. Also, the PDP and NNPP are changing the narratives by going to each of the 114 political wards of the state. Therefore, it is too early to say who is going to win the election, because whoever emerges will do so with a few votes,” Yahaya said.
