Yobe State of Nigeria is administratively divided into three senatorial districts or geopolitical zones, known as Zones A, B, and C, which are used for both political representation and administrative convenience.
Zone A (Yobe East), Zone B (Yobe South) and Zone C (Yobe North).
Presently, of those racing to succeed Gov. Mai Mala Buni, the major emerging 2027 gubernatorial aspirants for Yobe state include Senator Ibrahim Mohammed Bomai (Zone B), Abubakar D. Aliyu (Zone B), and Musa Mustapha (Zone A).
Senator Ibrahim Mohammed Bomai, represents Yobe South APC Senatorial District at the National Assembly, Senator Ahmed Ibrahim Lawan APC Yobe North, while Senator Ibrahim Gaidam APC represents Yobe East.
Nigeria’s tradition of rotating leadership among senatorial zones at the state level, for Yobe in this instance, dictates that after Zone A’s turn where the current Governor hails from, it is widely expected that Zone B should produce the next governor.
However, looming large over Yobe’s political landscape is former Gov. Geidam, who, after serving two terms as governor, was instrumental to crowning Gov. Buni as his successor in 2019, and deftly stepped aside as a Senator and is now Nigeria’s Minister of Police Affairs.
But as party stakeholders are busy positioning themselves ahead of the 2027 elections, political analysts are worried that the race across the state’s three senatorial districts may not tilt in favour of power balancing among the three because the alliance that has shaped Yobe’s leadership for over a decade, that of a family-backed political structure has renewed freshly the debate about who will inherit Yobe’s gubernatorial seat after Gov. Buni’s exit in 2027.
A careful consideration of this historical context reveals that since the return to democratic rule in 1999, there is palpable fear that Governor Buni, a son-in-law of Ibrahim Gaidam, is set to play the Buni/Gaidam hegemony card, threatening to rear its head once again in Yobe, fuelling the fear that Buni may anoint a candidate from the same Zone A like him, in the person of Sen. Musa Mustapha, a.k.a, Coolers.
Sen. Musa Mustapha, the current Senator representing Yobe East, who took over from Geidam after he was appointed minister in the current administration, is also the father-in-law of Sen. Ibrahim Geidam. The speculation, smelling nepotism, is that Sen. Musa Mustapha’s emergence as Governor will pave the way to the Senate for Gov. Buni in 2027.
Insiders further revealed that for the Yobe guber race, Plan B for Gov. Buni is the current Secretary to the State Government, Baba Mallam Wali (BMW), from Zone C, who will have served 12 years as SSG if he completes his tenure with Gov. Buni, having served four years with Gov. Gaidam and eight with Gov. Buni.
Within this framework, Senator Ibrahim Mohammed Bomai, the Madakin Fika, from Zone B, which has over 50% of Yobe’s population, appears to garner a lot of support among the electorate who are using performance as yardstick for their choice come 2027.
This time around, if APC wants to win the gubernatorial election easily without facing any challenges, they should reintroduce the zoning system because it will encourage the electorates to come out en masse to vote for the party,
There is no doubt that relationships has dimensions beyond politics, and succession battles, if it doesn’t lead to loss of power, often exposes deep fractures in dominant parties like the APC, but as the battle for Yobe guber draws near, merit, performance and capacity should not be sacrificed at the altar of nepotism in the name of personal gain.
There are allegations of corrupt-ridden system of governance that is stalling the state’s developmental progress, thus Yobe state, created years before others in Nigeria, still remains backwards in terms of development.
It was created in1991 by the then President of the country, General Ibrahim Babangida, but other states created by Gen. Abacha are way ahead of Yobe.
Yobe State, which has a pluralistic population with rich and diverse historical and cultural heritages, has major ethnic groups that include Kanuri, Manga, Fulani, Karai-Karai, Bolewa, Ngizim, Bade, Hausa, Ngamo, Babur/Maga and several other ethnic groups.
Thus Gov.Mala Buni’s alleged plan to embed the Kanuri monarchical system in Yobe by anointing another Kanuri man to satisfy his benefactor smacks of tribalism. And tribalism exposes the fragility of governance, exalts discrimination, it favours nepotism over merit, and results in allowing unqualified persons into key positions.
As the political process unfolds, fairness, balance, inclusion, and party cohesion, interest of Yobe people, internal party dynamics should gain traction and ultimately shape the outcome of whoever shall emerge as the preferred candidate and that person must be able to unite the party and the state.
However, though the endorsement of Ibrahim Gaidam and the support of Governor Mai Mala Buni could ultimately prove decisive, the APC structures that control the grassroots political machinery determines an aspirant’s strength in the upcoming party primary.
The level of internal engagement and calculations currently going on reinforces perceptions, rightly or wrongly, that the incumbency power dynamics still persist and that can easily create divisions within the party and among stakeholders.
As the race to occupy the seat of the fifth democratically elected governor of Yobe State heats up, APC party leaders are therefore expected to fear God and uphold democracy by managing the selection process in a way that avoids unnecessary tension.
Specifically, the APC in Yobe should be fair as it navigates this delicate succession struggle in the state in order to to identify a candidate who will not only earn the trust of the people and the party, but ultimately deliver a better life for residents of Yobe State.
Imam writesfrom Potiskum, Yobe State
