The World Bank has increased its projection for Nigeria’s economic growth rate for 2026 to 4.4 per cent from the 3.7 per cent it forecasted in June 2025.
The global financial institution also upgraded Nigeria’s economic growth rate for 2027 to 4.4 per cent from 3.8 per cent and estimated that Nigeria’s economy grew by 4.2 per cent in 2025, compared to the 3.6 per cent forecasted in June last year.
The World Bank increased its 2026 global economic growth rate projection from 2.4 percent to 2.6 percent.
In its 2026 ‘Global Economic Prospects’ report released on Tuesday, the financial institution also estimated 2.7 per cent economic growth rate for 2025 period compared to the 2.3 per cent forecasted in June 2025.
According to the report, the 2027 global economic growth rate is projected at 2.7 percent, compared to the 2.6 percent forecasted in June 2025.
The World Bank said the global economy is proving more resilient than anticipated despite persistent trade tensions and policy uncertainty.
However, the bank noted that while global growth remains stable, it is concentrated in advanced economies and is unlikely to reduce extreme poverty, with the 2020s on track to be the weakest decade since the 1960s.
“The resilience reflects better-than-expected growth — especially in the United States, which accounts for about two-thirds of the upward revision to the forecast in 2026,” the World Bank said.
The institution said global growth will slow in 2026 as trade-related boosts fade, but easing financial conditions and fiscal expansion are expected to cushion the impact.
It added that inflation is projected to edge down to 2.6 percent in 2026, with growth picking up in 2027 as trade and policy uncertainty ease.
The World Bank Group’s chief economist, Indermit Gill, said with each passing year, the global economy has become less capable of generating growth while appearing more resilient to policy uncertainty.
“But economic dynamism and resilience cannot diverge for long without fracturing public finance and credit markets,” Gill said.
“Over the coming years, the world economy is set to grow slower than it did in the troubled 1990s — while carrying record levels of public and private debt.
“To avert stagnation and joblessness, governments in emerging and advanced economies must aggressively liberalise private investment and trade, rein in public consumption, and invest in new technologies and education,” he added.
The World Bank also projected that growth in the sub-Saharan Africa is expected to rise to 4.3 per cent in 2026 and 4.5 per cent in 2027.
In 2026, the institution said growth in developing economies is projected to slow to 4 percent from 4.2 percent in 2025 before edging up to 4.1 percent in 2027 as trade tensions ease, commodity prices stabilise, financial conditions improve, and investment flows strengthen.
The bank noted that growth is projected to be higher in low-income countries, averaging 5.6 percent over 2026–2027, supported by stronger domestic demand, recovering exports, and moderating inflation.
The World Bank said developing economies will continue to lag behind advanced economies, with per capita income growth projected at 3 percent in 2026, widening the income gap.
“At this pace, per capita income in developing economies is expected to be only 12% of the level in advanced economies,” the institution said.
The World Bank Group’s director of the Prospects Group, Ayhan Kose, said with public debt in emerging and developing economies at its highest level in more than half a century, restoring fiscal credibility has become urgent.
“Well-designed fiscal rules can help governments stabilise debt, rebuild policy buffers, and respond more effectively to shocks,” Kose said.
“But rules alone are not enough: credibility, enforcement, and political commitment ultimately determine whether fiscal rules deliver stability and growth.”
Kose said more than half of developing economies have adopted fiscal rules, which can improve budget balances by 1.4 percent of GDP after five years and increase the likelihood of sustained improvement.
The director added that the use of fiscal rules also rises by 9 percentage points the likelihood of a multi-year improvement in budget balances.
However, Kose noted that both the short- and long-term benefits of fiscal rules depend on institutional strength, economic context, and the design of the rules.
