The World Bank has downgraded Nigeria’s economic growth projection for 2026 to an average of 4.1 per cent in 2026.
In its April 2026 Africa Economic Update titled ‘Making Industrial Policy Work in Africa,’ the World Bank said the growth forecast is driven by more stable macroeconomic conditions and a gradual recovery in investment.
In October 2025, World Bank projected Nigeria’s economy will grow by 4.4 per cent in 2026 and 2027.
The 2027 projection was also downgraded to 4.2 per cent, while the growth forecast for 2028 was put at 4.3 per cent.
According to the global lender, the services sector particularly ICT, finance, and real estate will remain the primary engine of growth, while agriculture and industry are expected to expand more slowly due to structural constraints.
It also said inflation is projected to decline from 23 per cent in 2025 to 14.9 per cent in 2026, and further ease to 10.7 per cent by 2028, reflecting the lagged impact of policy tightening and improving supply conditions.
“Although poverty remains elevated, it is expected to decline gradually as inflation eases, albeit more slowly due to higher fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict,” World Bank said.
“Rising oil prices could support fiscal and external balances, partly offset by capital flow volatility amid global uncertainty.
“However, business sentiment and reform momentum may be dampened by commodity price by commodity price volatility, tighter global financial conditions, security concerns, and policy uncertainty ahead of the 2027 elections,” it added.
