The forthcoming presidential elections in the United States, scheduled for November 5, represent a critical juncture in American democracy. With the country facing a multitude of challenges, including economic disparities, social justice issues and foreign policy dilemmas, the elections involving two major candidates – the incumbent vice president and Democratic Party flag-bearer, Kamala Harris and the Republican Party supremo Donald Trump – will not only determine the next leader of the country but will also shape the global political landscape for years to come.
The United States recent electoral history has been characterized by fierce competition. The 2020 presidential election, which saw Joe Biden defeat incumbent Trump, was one of the most contentious in recent history. Issues such as the COVID-19 pandemic, racial injustice, and the integrity of the electoral process dominated discussions. The aftermath of the election, compounded by the January 6 insurrection at the Capitol, has left an indelible mark on American politics, polarizing the electorate further and setting the stage for the 2024 election duel.
With the polarization of political parties, particularly between Democrats and Republicans, voters find themselves increasingly divided. The emergence of social media as a primary source of information further complicates the political discourse, allowing for the rapid spread of misinformation. Therefore, the 2024 elections are not merely a contest for the presidency but a referendum on the health of American democracy itself.
Harris, who replaced her principal, President Biden on the Democratic ticket owing to the latter’s poor health and concerns over his age, has focused on major issues such as economic recovery, infrastructure development, and international relations. However, challenges such as inflation, public dissatisfaction with the pace of change, and concerns over the Middle East conflict and the Biden administration blanket support for Israel’s genocide in Gaza and the occupied territories are likely to affect her chances at the polls.
On the Republican front, Trump remains a dominant figure. Despite facing legal challenges, he has maintained a significant base of support among Republican voters. His campaign rhetoric continues to resonate with a substantial portion of the electorate, focusing on themes of nationalism, economic populism, and anti-establishment sentiments.
Voter turnout will be a decisive factor in this elections. Mobilizing specific demographics such as young voters, suburban women, and racial minorities could swing key battleground states. Both parties face challenges in energizing their bases while also appealing to moderate and independent voters who might be critical in determining the outcome. Historically, higher voter turnout favors Democrats, while lower turnout has benefited Republicans.
However, around 27% of Americans believe a civil war is likely to break out after the presidential election. This is according to a recent YouGov poll, with supporters of both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris expressing similar concerns.
The poll revealed a significant number of Americans fear the upcoming election could lead to political violence, with 6% stating that a second civil war is “very likely” and 21% saying it is “somewhat likely.” Roughly equal proportions of Trump and Harris supporters thought a civil war was at least somewhat likely.
Of the 1,266 respondents, 12% said they know someone who might take up arms if they believed Republican candidate Trump were cheated out of victory, while 5% reported knowing someone who would do the same for Democratic rival Harris.
The poll highlighted deep divisions within American society, with 84% of voters agreeing that the country is more divided than it was ten years ago.
After US President Joe Biden dropped out of the race and endorsed Harris as his party’s nominee, the Democrats initially enjoyed a honeymoon period with voters, reflected in rising poll numbers. However, recent surveys indicate that Trump is leading in most swing states, even if within the margin of error.
Following the 2020 election, a crowd of Trump supporters descended on the US Capitol on January 6, 2021, in an attempt to prevent lawmakers from certifying what they believed was Biden’s fraudulent victory. The demonstration quickly devolved into a riot, which Biden and fellow Democrats characterized as an “insurrection.”
The US presidential elections are shaping up to be a high-stakes contest that transcends traditional party lines and reflects the complex socio-political tapestry of the country. As the candidates prepare to enter a battleground marked by division and uncertainty, voters will need to navigate a plethora of issues that directly impact their lives. The outcome of these elections will not only determine the next president but also signal the direction of American democracy in a rapidly changing world. The stakes have never been higher, and the eyes of the world will be focused on the unfolding political drama. In this context, the resilience of democratic values and the voice of the electorate will be paramount in shaping the future trajectory of the United States.
