Was it wise of Governors Abdullahi Sule of Nasarawa State and Dapo Abiodun of Ogun State, with the 2027 election season only just getting started, to publicly anoint Senator Ahmed Aliyu Wadada and Senator Solomon Olamilekan Adeola [alias Yayi] respectively, as their preferred successors? Governor Sule clarified in a statement at the weekend that his public endorsement of Wadada and in taking him to the State House and introducing him to President Tinubu was not an “anointment” but only that he is his “preferred” successor, and that all the state APC’s fourteen other aspirants are free to contest the upcoming primaries.
Watching video clips on social media in which Sule and Abiodun made their anointments, reminded me of an occasion 26 years ago when then President-elect Olusegun Obasanjo was asked to make a speech soon after the outgoing military Head of State General Abdulsalami Abubakar spoke. Obasanjo said, “No, in Africa, you cannot have two chiefs in the same village.” On another occasion, Obasanjo also said there are good reasons why we don’t have Crown Princes in Africa. Probably the only place in Nigeria where the heir apparent to be reigning monarch is known is Ibadan, which has an established line of succession to the Olubadan’s stool. That has to do with Ibadan’s history as an amalgamation of military camps; neither Nasarawa nor Ogun states have a similar military history.
Quite alright, Nasarawa was part of the Northern Region until 1967; was then part of Benue Plateau State until 1976; was then known as Lower Plateau section of Plateau State until 1996, when General Sani Abacha yanked it out and made it a state of its own. Some katakata soon followed, because Doma and Awe LGAs found themselves in separate states and there is this old Hausa saying that “whatever eats Doma, also eats Awe,” so the military government had to make territorial amends and bring them back together in Nasarawa State. Even soldiers were forced to make amends and redraw Nasarawa’s territory; will Governor Sule also make amends to his controversial drawing of the Nasarawa political map?
Senator Wadada could be eminently qualified to succeed to the governorship of Nasarawa State; I am not doubting that. The problem is with the anointment. In recent weeks, the contest for the Nasarawa Government House has been one of the loudest in Nigeria, which somewhat surprised me, because it has one of the smallest treasuries of Nigerian states. I may [foolishly] be thinking only of the treasury, but Nigerian politicians sure know what else to look at, such as Nasarawa’s 13 local governments and 25 first class traditional rulers, its huge stock of solid minerals, its rich farmlands adjoining River Benue, its peaceable nature compared to all its neighbours, its gains from being adjacent to the FCT, and the struggle for ascendancy between its numerous ethnic groups.
At the last count, there was a former Police IG struggling to get the state’s top job; there is a man who abruptly resigned as Executive Secretary of a juicy federal agency to gun for the same post, and there is also a man, a professor of engineering, who once headed a huge federal engineering agency who is also gunning for the post.
I reflected on what Obasanjo said for a time. In Britain, Charles was Crown Prince for nearly 70 years and was Prince of Wales for 64 years and 44 days before he succeeded his mother in Buck House. In Japan, current Emperor Naruhito was Crown Prince for 30 years before he succeeded to the Chrysanthemum when his father, Emperor Akihito, abdicated. Akihito himself was heir apparent for 63 years [1926-1989] before he succeeded his father, Emperor Hirohito. In Thailand, current King Vajiralongkorn was Crown Prince for 44 years before he got to succeed his father, King Bhumibol Adulyadej. In Eswatini [formerly known as Swaziland], current King Mswati II was lucky to succeed his father King Sobhuza when he was 18 years old, because Sobhuza, Son of the She-Elephant, was Ngwenyama [King] of Swaziland for 82 years and 254 days, the longest verifiable reign of any monarch in recorded history, according to Google. If it was in Nigeria here, who can wait for you for 82 years, one and a half times as long as the entire period of British rule in this country?
Every traditional throne in Nigeria, whether big or small, has many princes struggling to occupy it whenever it falls vacant. Some princes spend all their lives waiting. They don’t just wait; they jostle with other princes for the reigning monarch’s favours, including public recognition and a prominent chieftaincy title, endlessly pray and seek the help of babalawos, attend numerous social occasions in order to garner IOUs, and do everything they can to curry the favour of kingmakers. Trouble is, kingmakers are often old men who may die off before the next selection, so the investment is often a gamble.
Politics is slightly better than royal succession because at least it has a defined time span; you know that there will be another election after four years. The legal and political steps that an aspirant takes are also a bit clearer than for a person waiting for a traditional stool. However, kingmakers are a much smaller, and often much more honourable, circle than political kingmakers, who can drag you to shrines deep in the forest and could make you to sign post-dated resignation letters.
Next year, thirty Government Houses as well as State House in Abuja will be up for grabs in elections. Of these, incumbents in 19 states as well as in Aso Rock are expected to stand for re-election, provided they win their party primaries or if, in some cases, they successfully defect to other parties. However, in ten states, governors are completing their second and final terms in office. That is where the term anointing is most often heard, because in Nigeria, rulers about to vacate office unfailingly wish to be succeeded by their chosen ones.
Anointment is a tricky business in Nigeria. In other lands, a departing ruler endorses his preferred successor mostly with policy and ideological orientation in mind. Here however, the governing criteria are zoning, ethnic continuity and, most important of all, personal loyalty. In making an anointment decision, loyalty is the trickiest of all criteria for a godfather to assess. It is impossible to accurately determine loyalty from a man’s [or, for that matter, from a woman’s] face. Prostrating deeply, uttering the sweetest praises, swearing to God, running and jumping around to discharge errands, physical altercation with foes, showering of presents, doing dubale in front of parents and friends, marrying one’s daughter, all do not guarantee loyalty once the godson ascends the throne. This is probably because human behavior easily changes with changed economic, social and political circumstances.
Given that anointment has been the least successful phenomenon in Nigerian politics, it is a wonder that many outgoing presidents and governors still attempt it. Over the years, all over the country, dozens of departing governors in Nigeria succeeded in installing their chosen men as successors, but in very few places did it end well. Soon after the transitions, you begin to hear of betrayal, back biting, snubbing, not answering the godfather’s phone calls, ignoring the kingmaker’s list of cabinet appointees, refusing to share security vote with the godfather, and [a specific Kano invention] “standing on your feet.”
On the side of the successors, you often hear words such as the godfather is overbearing, he wants to dictate all the appointments and the juicy contracts, he wants to personally control party structures, he does not want any investigation of the contracts he awarded, he does not want any of his policies to be reexamined, and he wants to be ushered with pomp into every social and political occasion. Quite alright, there have been a few states where anointment ended successfully. Kwara, Sokoto, Borno, Yobe, Kogi and Lagos [until recent rumours surfaced] have been some of the talked about success cases.
On the other hand, some of the most spectacular cases of failed anointment include Theodore Orji/Kalu Uzor Kalu in Abia; a man who was rammed through to the Government House from prison still turned against his godfather. In Edo State, Governor Andrew Obaseki’s turning against Adams Oshiomhole brought added loyalty to the meaning of political betrayal. In Kano, the Abdullahi Ganduje/Rabi’u Kwankwaso fall out was spectacular, the former having been the latter’s two-time deputy governor, Special Adviser when he was Defence Minister and also chosen successor to the governorship. Still, for Kwankwaso, the latest failed anointment of Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf, his longtime personal assistant and reputed son-in-law, is probably even more painful.
Governors Abdullahi Sule and Dapo Abiodun have kicked off this year’s public anointing game. Many other second term governors may be doing the same, so far discreetly. This warning for an anointed candidate: you will have the political and financial weight of the Governor behind you, but you are also guaranteed the united hostility of all the other people angling for the same seat.
