As Donald Trump returns to the White House for a second term, the world watches with apprehension, waiting to see how his renewed grip on power will reshape global dynamics. For Nigeria and other countries in the Global South, a second Trump presidency is less a mere continuation of American unpredictability than a high-stakes test of resilience and diplomacy in the face of intensifying geopolitical strain. His previous tenure left deep imprints across the globe, from trade wars to recalibrated alliances, and this time promises a more emboldened version of “America First.” For Nigeria and nations similarly poised between American and Chinese influence, this reemergence introduces both grave uncertainties and significant opportunities.
In his first term, Trump’s approach to foreign policy embodied the realism advocated by thinkers like Henry Kissinger, who asserted that “America has no permanent friends or enemies, only interests.” Trump took this maxim to heart, redefining the very notion of global partnership by prioritizing tangible national gains over established alliances or cooperative frameworks. Nigeria, as one of Africa’s largest economies and a growing power in the Global South, found itself impacted both directly and indirectly by Trump’s indifference to longstanding aid commitments and his transactional approach to diplomacy. Yet, the real test for Nigeria and the rest of the world will be how Trump wields the lessons of his first presidency in his second term.
One major area of consequence is security and counterterrorism. Nigeria’s ongoing struggle against Boko Haram and insurgent groups remains at a critical juncture, and Trump’s disengagement from African security initiatives poses a dilemma. Realist scholars like John Mearsheimer might argue that Trump’s recalibration toward “America First” is simply a pragmatic realignment. From Trump’s perspective, the battles waged by Nigeria and its neighbors are regional concerns and should be handled independently. During his first term, the U.S. reduced its footprint in Africa, signaling a willingness to let regional powers handle their own conflicts with minimal American involvement. His return could see further downsizing, demanding that Nigeria either seek new partners or bolster self-sufficiency in its counterterrorism strategy.
However, Trump’s strategy is not without opportunity. Nigeria might view this shift as a call to deepen alliances with alternative powers, like China and Russia, which have steadily expanded their influence across Africa. Trump’s second term will likely bring a heightened U.S.-China rivalry, and Nigeria’s position as a recipient of substantial Chinese investment makes it a player in this grand game. In this climate, Nigeria may find itself in a delicate balancing act between securing American goodwill and reaping the benefits of Chinese financial assistance. Trump’s combative stance toward China, though challenging, could yield unexpected benefits for Nigeria if it plays its cards wisely, leveraging American interests in the region to secure advantageous terms in both security and trade.
Additionally, Trump’s approach to trade will directly affect Nigeria’s economy. Under his previous administration, the U.S. withdrew from multilateral trade deals and favoredbilateral agreements designed to benefit American businesses. Realist grand strategist Edward N. Luttwak would likely argue that Trump’s transactional style represents a natural response to the changing multipolar world, where economic power is as decisive as military strength. Nigeria, for example, faced restrictions on certain visa categories and was caught up in trade policies that emphasized American jobs and markets. Trump’s resurgence could mean a more entrenched version of these policies, with Nigeria forced to renegotiate on terms heavily tilted in favor of the U.S.
In the energy sector, Trump’s disdain for global climate agreements, a hallmark of his first presidency, could also impact Nigeria. Known for his withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, Trump’s policies favored fossil fuels and downplayed environmental concerns. His return could allow oil-rich countries like Nigeria to capitalize on relaxed environmental scrutiny, potentially accelerating oil exports to an energy-hungry America unconcerned with environmental consequences. However, while this approach may benefit Nigeria’s economy in the short term, it could also hamper the country’s longer-term goals of diversifying its economy and investing in sustainable energy, thereby risking future instability.
Trump’s unpredictability may force Nigeria’s leaders to adopt a stance similar to that described by Niccolò Machiavelli, who observed, “The ends justify the means.” In a world led by an America guided less by ideals and more by outcomes, Nigeria must adopt a flexible pragmatism, pivoting swiftly to serve its national interests while safeguarding against the volatile nature of U.S. foreign policy. Nigerian leaders must accept that U.S. support, if it comes at all, will be guided solely by what benefits Trump’s vision of America’s power—a stark contrast from the more predictable relationships of the past.
For the broader African continent, Trump’s reelection might catalyze a trend toward self-reliance, fostering the type of regional resilience recommended by scholars such as Stephen Walt, who sees regional powers as the primary actors in securing their own stability. With the U.S. less willing to bear the burdens of international security, African nations, including Nigeria, may be nudged toward creating stronger regional alliances, enhancing continental frameworks like the African Union, and securing investment from diverse international partners beyond the West.
Finally, Trump’s nationalist rhetoric and the fracturing of the post-World War II liberal order present Nigeria with a stark choice: continue pursuing traditional Western partnerships or fully embrace the multipolarity of the 21st century. Trump’s America exemplifies the realist notion that power is an ever-shifting resource, wielded by states according to their immediate interests. For Nigeria, this means both seizing opportunities in a world less bound by rigid alliances and preparing for disruptions to established norms.
Trump’s second term reaffirms the unpredictability that now defines global politics. Nigeria and similar nations will need not only resilience but also a strategic clarity that draws lessons from Trump’s first term. Machiavelli’s insight that “fortune favors the bold” is perhaps most apt for Nigeria in this moment. By wisely navigating Trump’s erratic policies and seizing the openings within his isolationist vision, Nigeria may emerge from this era with renewed agency and influence on the global stage. It is a daunting test of diplomacy and strength, but one that, if met with foresight and resolve, could redefine Nigeria’s role in the world for years to come.
Mr Aliyu is an economist and policy analyst based in Kaduna
