We all thought, with the impending withdrawal of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger Republic from ECOWAS at the end of January 2025 and the unlikelihood that they will utilise the six months period offered by ECOWAS leaders for them to have a rethink, “All will be quiet on the Northern Front,” to paraphrase from the title of Erich Maria Remarque’s 1928 novel about a German soldier’s life in World War One.
Not so. Much like the German dictator Adolf Hitler, who opened a second, Eastern Front against the Soviet Union when his war against France and UK was not yet won, Nigerien military ruler General Abdourahmane Tchiani opened a Southern Front against Nigeria even when his battle to banish the French and Americans from his country was not yet won. Luckily this is not a shooting war; it is a political, diplomatic, economic, cultural, psychological and propaganda war that could however easily spin out of the Nigerien ruler’s control, much as Adolf Hitler lost control of events after launching Operation Barbarossa in June 1941.
Last week, Tchiani gave a wide-ranging televised interview to a fawning journalist. Not only did the reporter not interrogate the soldier’s claims or demand for evidence, but he bent over backwards to nod in agreement at every one of Tchiani’s claims. On many occasions, he even completed his sentences for him. Critically, the interview was conducted in Hausa language. To some extent that is understandable because Tchiani probably speaks no English, only French, while most people of Niger Republic speak Hausa either as first or as second language, including Tchiani himself, who is an ethnic Zarma.
But there was a more important reason. Hausa is the dominant language spoken in northern Nigeria, by tens of millions of people as first language and by some more millions as second language. Tchiani’s message is directed at them as well as at his countrymen, for two different but related reasons. Until the recent misunderstanding arose following last year’s coup in Niger Republic, the peoples of Northern Nigeria and Niger Republic see themselves as one due to deep historical ties and socio-cultural similarities. The response of ECOWAS and Nigerian government to the events in that country, especially the initial threat of military action to depose the coupists, was not well received in Northern Nigeria, where many people thought a war with Niger Republic is unthinkable. Many people in Nigeria do not really think that restoring democracy to a friendly neighbouring country is worth a war, or even sanctions that could disrupt their lives and also hurt our own border communities. ECOWAS has since backtracked from those threats, but Tchiani is intent on whipping up sentiment in the North, using the agency of Hausa language, to further upstage President Tinubu and if possible, win the support of millions of other Africans in his fight against France.
And for a good reason. The soldiers who overthrew President Mohamed Bazoum, in a desperate search for legitimacy, found, whipped up and rode on anti-French sentiment like an Argentine polo pony. Sure, French colonial and post-colonial record in Africa is sordid, hence the relative ease with which it was easy to whip up feelings against it and chase its troops and military bases out of a long swathe of West Africa all the way from Chad, Niger Republic, Burkina Faso, Mali and most recently, Senegal. However, Tchiani and the soldiers did not just promise to oust the French and Americans. They also promised that their country will oust terrorists, enjoy peace and security and also experience an economic boom, allegedly because France will no longer be stealing its resources. To boot, they sought to bring in the Russians to assist with both security and economic prosperity. A year down the road, neither prospect is on the cards. Trade with Nigeria, not to mention smuggling of petrol and food, has always been a major factor in Niger Republic’s economy. Even without ECOWAS sanctions, Nigeria’s government is trying to stem the flow of subsidised petrol to our neighbours, hence Niger will feel the heat.
Expected Russian help on the security front was not forthcoming either. Tchiani must have wished it was the old Soviet Union, which had global reach and power, and deep commitment in those days to strategic alliances as well as the “Brezhnev Doctrine,” which the Communist Party defined as “defending the gains of socialism worldwide.” Matters were not helped by the mysterious death of Wagner Group boss Yevgeny Prigozhin, the arrow head of Russian military intervention in Africa. He was killed in a plane crash in August last year, immediately after he returned to Russia from a visit to Niger Republic. Russia itself is so mired in its war in Ukraine that it needs help from Iran, China and North Korea. That Russia couldn’t render help recently when its most prized strategic Middle East ally, Syrian President Hafiz al-Assad, was overthrown by rebels was the best pointer yet that a Sahelian African ally should hardly rely on it to help pull any chestnuts out of a domestic fire.
Most probably, it was the recent bombing of the Niger-Benin Republic oil pipeline, allegedly by the Lakurawa terrorist group, that drove General Tchiani to desperation and he began his frantic search for a scapegoat. Nigeria came in handy. Not the whole of Nigeria, but specifically the Tinubu Administration, which he hopes to destabilise by inciting the Hausa speaking section of Nigeria’s population against it. How that will bring either security or economic prosperity to his country, I am yet to figure out.
The most important allegations that Tchiani made are that the Nigerian government is working to destabilise Niger Republic, that it created and sponsors the Lakurawa terrorist group, and that there are French military bases in Nigeria. With respect to the first allegation, since I am not a government official in Nigeria, I have no access to secret planning files. However, three people who have access to those files and will be privy to any such plans if they exist, namely National Security Adviser Malam Nuhu Ribadu, Information Minister Mohammed Idris and Chief of Defence Staff General Christopher Musa, have all denied that there is such a plot.
I believe them. Why because, what can Nigeria possibly gain by destabilising Niger Republic? Last year, the initially stated goal of both Nigeria and ECOWAS in adopting a hostile attitude towards Tchiani and the coupists was to restore democratic rule, and if possible, restore President Bazoum to power. Those aims are all but abandoned now because neither Nigerians nor Nigeriens have exhibited a hunger for restoring democratic rule in that country. A possible reason for the Nigerian government’s initial response was the fear that a successful military coup in Niger Republic could have a contagious effect in neighbouring countries, including Nigeria. I don’t think there is a good reason for that fear now. Besides, if chaos were to envelop Niger Republic, millions of its citizens could flee to Nigeria, as happened during the 1973-74 Sahelian drought. Luckily General Yakubu Gowon is still around; we only have to ask him how he grappled with the mass inflow.
Nigeria created Lakurawa terrorist group in order to destabilise Niger Republic? To begin with, all the Lakurawa men are of Nigerien and possibly Burkinabe and Malian origin, as attested to by people of northern and western Sokoto and Kebbi states who encountered them. These people know a Nigerien when they see one, from his looks, dress, accent, tribal marks, manners and ways of speaking, greeting and praying. We have 200 million plus people in Nigeria, many of them in desperate search for employment and adventure, including a lot of ex-servicemen and veteran Boko Haramists, ISWAPists and bandits. We don’t have to go very far in a search for recruits. More seriously, if Nigerian security agents created the Lakurawa army, why was it unleashed against communities in Nigeria, why is it causing so much mayhem, such that Nigerian Air Force has to drop bombs on its suspected camps, with image-damaging collateral damage on hapless villagers?
Tchiani’s most specific allegation was that there are French military camps in Nigeria. He even mentioned a place, Banga, which he said is in Silame Local Government of Sokoto State, and another place in Borno State. Well, there were reports in the newspapers yesterday where communities in northern Sokoto State denied that there were any foreign military bases in the area. If there are, they will know. Even a Nigerian Army Forward Operating Base will be very visible in a local community. A foreign military base will be known to everyone. For one, white French soldiers will stand out in a local Nigerian community like an archbishop in a brothel, to borrow a French saying. Tanks, armoured vehicles, huge radars and even aircraft will be all over such a base. Tchiani knows best what a foreign military base looks like because there were several of them in his country during his 13-year stint as Head of the Presidential Guard. As NSA Nuhu Ribadu stated, we never had foreign military bases in Nigeria, but during my primary and secondary school days, I read much about the American Clark Air Base and Subic Naval Base both in the Philippines, before they were closed down in the 1990s. We also read much about America’s strategic bomber base in Diego Garcia, its Andersen Air Force Base in Guam, its naval base in Guantanamo, Cuba, as well as bases in Munich, South Korea and its Kadena Air Base in Okinawa, Japan. A foreign military base cannot be innocuous. Tchiani alleged there are such bases in Nigeria and locals say there are none. A judge who is judging over this case will invoke the legal principle of falsus in uno, falsus in omnibus. That is, “False in one, false in all.” If you tell one lie, all your other testimony is thrown out.
How times change. In the 1960s, Nigerian university students staged protests against French testing of nuclear weapons in the Sahara Desert in southern Algeria, slightly to the north of Niger Republic. Prime Minister Sir Abubakar Tafawa Balewa even went to London to protest. Did Niger Republic lodge a protest? See who is now accusing the other of acquiescing in French military machinations.
