Despite the staggering death toll and human suffering that Israel has inflicted on Gaza over the past two years, peace has still come too early for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – at least in the eyes of some observers.
Critics have accused the Israeli leader of using the war to deflect attention from challenges to his position, and even his freedom. With the ceasefire in Gaza now in place, none of those challenges has gone anywhere.
Even the ceasefire – which Netanyahu has been at pains to present as a victory – is seen by some, including former Israeli ambassador Alon Pinkas, as stage-managedand forced upon him by a White House running out of patience with the growing financial and diplomatic costs of Israel’s war.
So, if he cannot find another war, what challenges does Netanyahu face before next year’s Israeli elections and beyond, and just how dangerous are they?
Let’s take a closer look.
Will the Israeli prime minister continue to face international isolation?
Israel has never been more isolated on the international stage than it is now, and for many, Netanyahu has become the face of that.
Over the last two years, Israel’s killing of more than 67,000 Palestinians and the scenes of the famine it has inflicted upon Gaza have led to revulsion across the world. In the short term, unless Netanyahu’s government can permanently ban international journalists from reaching Gaza, the increased coverage of what his government has inflicted upon the enclave is likely to cement Israel’s pariah status for some time.
However, Israel’s growing isolation has been apparent for months and, in September, Netanyahu appeared to be laying the groundwork for it to continue. Setting out his vision for a future ‘Super Sparta’ – a reference to the martial ancient Greek state – Netanyahu painted a picture of economic and diplomatic isolation and continuous warfare.
It did not go down very well. The Israeli stock exchange plummeted almost immediately, and the shekel nosedived against other currencies. The Israel Business Forum, representing 200 of the country’s largest companies, put it quite simply, “We are not Sparta.”
Could the right wing collapse Netanyahu’s coalition?
It could, but Netanyahu is already taking steps to avoid it.
Throughout the war, and the public battlesover the independence of Israel’s judiciary beforehand, Netanyahu has relied heavily on the support of Israel’s far right.
Most obviously, this has been in the form of Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, both of whom have objected to the ceasefire while remaining within Netanyahu’s governing coalition, for now.
Anticipating their possible departure, Netanyahu is reported to be introducing legislation to exempt ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students from the draft in the hope that this will prompt the return of ultra-Orthodox parties in the parliament to his government, ensuring its survival in the face of any defections.
Could the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the International Court of Justice (ICJ) still find Netanyahu and Israel guilty?
They could.
In November 2024, the ICC issued international arrest warrants for war crimes against Netanyahu, former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, as well as Hamas’s military commander, Mohammed Deif, who Israel has since killed.
The ICJ is also considering charges of genocide against Israel, for which many are certain to hold Netanyahu responsible if a guilty verdict is handed down.
There is currently no timeline for a verdict in the ICC case against Gallant and Netanyahu, and a conclusion in the ICJ case is not expected before the end of 2027, at the earliest. If found guilty, the ICC could impose a prison sentence of up to 30 years, while the ICJ would typically refer any guilty verdict to the UN Security Council for enforcement.
Could Trump desert Netanyahu?
It’s a real possibility.
Currently, the US is Israel’s principal economic and military sponsor, as well as its diplomatic bulwark in the face of international hostility. Without it, Israel – and by extension Netanyahu – would be in real trouble.
Whatever Netanyahu may claim, US President Donald Trump’s support has clear limits. In 2021, Trump was reportedly furious when Netanyahu became one of the first leaders to congratulate former US President Joe Biden on his election win.
He is also reported to have cut off contact with the Israeli prime minister in May over concerns that Netanyahu was trying to manipulate him.
More recently, Trump’s anger with Netanyahu reportedly peaked after Israel’s strike on Hamas negotiators in Doha in September, exclaiming: “He’s screwing me!”
Describing the build-up to the ceasefire, Trump has described how he “had it out” with Netanyahu and that he would not permit Israel to redeploy to Gaza, until “I say the word”.
Celebrating the inauguration of the ceasefire at the Israeli parliament later, Trump characterised the ceasefire as having been 3,000 years in the making, telling his audience, “And it’s going to hold up, too”.
He is unlikely to respond well to that being gambled away.
Will there be an Israeli inquiry into Netanyahu’s failings ahead of the October 7 attack?
It’s looking more and more likely.
Separate investigations into the army and intelligence service’s failures in the run-up to the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023 – which killed 1,139 people and saw about 250 abducted – exposed glaring oversights and confusion within Israel’s security services as they struggled to respond to an assault that they had not seen coming.
Both the army and intelligence chiefs resigned in the wake of each inquiry.
While Netanyahu raised no objections to those inquiries, he has resisted one into his own government’s role, claiming it would be politically biased and impractical during wartime.
But after the ceasefire, Israel’s High Court ruled unanimously that there was no longer “any real argument” to delay it, giving the government 30 days to respond.
Could Netanyahu go to jail?
Jail time remains a possibility for the Israeli prime minister.
Trump all but acknowledged the connection between Israel’s prolonged war on Gaza and Netanyahu’s corruption trials on Monday.
During his address to the Israeli parliament, Trump called upon Israeli President Isaac Herzog to pardon Netanyahu for what he described as “cigars and champagne”.
In reality, Netanyahu has been on trial in three corruption cases, all of which have continued – despite frequent delays – throughout the war.
The charges against the Israeli prime minister include bribery, fraud, and breach of trust, and could result in a 10-year prison term.
Aljazeera
