With only two days to the 2023 general elections, findings have revealed that some politicians, particularly presidential candidates, may have sponsored fake opinion polls allegedly targeted at deceiving the public to gain advantage over their opponents.
Of note in this category are Peter Obi, Bola Tinubu and Atiku Abubakar, candidates of the Labour Party (LP), All Progressives Congress (APC) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) respectively.
The creation and distribution of these fake polls to influence voters, particularly the undecided, fit into what can best be described as fake news, which could result in adverse societal consequences if left unpunished.
Investigations by 21st CENTURY CHRONICLE have found several polling agencies, including San Francisco-based Premise, NOI Polls, SBM Intelligence, Fitch Solutions, Dataphyte Research and POLAF to have conducted such polls. The polls showed varying results regarding the possible winners of the presidential election, with some of them indicating that a run-off might be possible, while others ruled it out.
San Francisco-based Premise for Bloomberg News
A survey conducted by San Francisco-based Premise Data Corp. for Bloomberg News claimed to have polled 2,384 Nigerians from January 26 to February 4, 2023, through a smartphone app. The submissions, according to the pollster, were selected based on quotas developed by age, gender, and location across the country’s six geopolitical zones and the results were weighted against the original quotas to ensure national representation. The survey published on Friday, February 10th, indicated that two-thirds of respondents intended to vote for Obi.
NOI Polls Limited for Anap Foundation
LP’s presidential candidate led the opinion poll commissioned by Anap Foundation and conducted by NOI Polls Limited. In the third and final nationwide poll, Obi scored 21 per cent, ahead of his closest rivals Bola Tinubu, Atiku Abubakar, and Rabiu Kwankwaso, who polled 13 per cent, 10 per cent, and 3 per cent, respectively.
SBM Intelligence for Enough is Enough (EiE) Nigeria
Tinubu is projected to win in nine states, Atiku in 11 states, and Obi in 17 states, according to the poll results conducted by SBM Intelligence for Enough is Enough (EiE) Nigeria. The data suggest that the LP’s Obi and the PDP’s Abubakar could garner enough votes over a sufficient number of states across four of the country’s six geopolitical zones to meet the constitutional requirement of scoring 25 per cent in at least 24 states. However, APC’s Tinubu is likely to do well in two of the country’s biggest voting states, Kano and Lagos, and the heavily populated southwest and northwest states, thereby winning the popular vote.
Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research
Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research predicts that Tinubu will win the presidential election. The report released by Fitch on February 1st, 2023, did not rule out the possibility of a run-off, which it said is rising. Fitch noted that there is a growing risk that the presidential election would go to a run-off and that if this happens, it would likely be very close and probably pit Tinubu against PDP’s Abubakar.
Nextier SPD
A survey by Nextier SPD, a consulting firm specialising in international development in Africa, indicated that LP is leading the race with 37 per cent, followed by PDP with 27 per cent and APC with 24 per cent. The latest Nextier Poll also indicates that Obi has the highest net favorability rating among the top presidential candidates, placing him ahead of his closest rivals, Abubakar and Tinubu. The poll, conducted face-to-face by 144 enumerators who surveyed 3,000 registered voters who have collected their Permanent Voters Cards across all states in Nigeria, represented the age and gender demographics of each state and the Federal Capital Territory. The results were released on February 5, 2023.
Dataphyte Research
According to Dataphyte Research, they analysed past voting patterns, voter turnouts, voter choice homogeneity, the religious homogeneity index, and other statistical estimators to conclude that Tinubu would win the popular vote and be the only candidate to satisfy the spread criteria of a minimum of 25 per cent votes in two-thirds of the 36 states. The results of the research organisation show that Tinubu will win in 22 states, Atiku in 13 states, and Obi in 11 states.
POLAF, a not-for-profit organisation
POLAF, a not-for-profit organisation, also conducted a poll revealing that the candidate of the PDP is likely to emerge as the winner of the closely contested election scheduled to hold on February 25. The result of the poll, which was conducted between July 2022 and February 2023, ruled out the possibility of a run-off. POLAF explained that three states were selected in each geopolitical zone, with an extra state selected from the South-South and South-West to make the number of states from which samples were drawn 20 out of 36, plus the Federal Capital Territory. The organisation added that the sample was drawn from the voter register of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), with 3,000 respondents in each of the selected states, bringing the total sample size to 3,123,660.
Nigerian Human Rights Community, NHRC
A poll conducted by the Nigerian Human Rights Community (NHRC) and released on February 15th in Lagos predicted that the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Bola Ahmed Tinubu, is likely to win the 2023 presidential election. According to the poll, which analyzed the preferences of 19,365 people polled in January, the results confirm a two-horse race between Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) for the second position. Tinubu is projected to win in 30 states and the Federal Capital Territory, while Atiku is predicted to win in seven states. The poll results also revealed that other parties’ candidates received an insignificant total of the respondents’ votes.
Why polls should be interrogated
One common feature of these polls is their flawed methodologies, according to experts. In some cases, the polls have had sampling bias, meaning that the people who participated in the polls were not representative of the overall population and this led to inaccurate results that did not reflect the views of the wider population.
Another issue is nonresponse bias. When large numbers of people selected to participate in a poll do not respond, the results can be unreliable and distorted. For example, a recent poll conducted by NOI Limited showed that 53 per cent of people selected to participate did not respond, with 20 per cent undecided and 30 per cent refusing to make their choices known.
This could result in a sample that is not representative of the overall population, making the poll results inaccurate and potentially misleading.
Experts also highlighted the issue of sample size, as some polls used a sample that was not large enough to be statistically significant. This further undermines the reliability of these polls and can lead to incorrect assumptions about public opinion.
Consequences of fake polls on elections
The use of fake polls in election coverage remains a significant concern, with experts emphasizing the importance of responsible reporting and accurate methodologies to ensure that the public is not misled by unreliable data, according to the ACE Electoral Knowledge Network.
Conjured opinion polls have become prevalent in Nigeria’s political landscape, with politicians sponsoring them to influence undecided voters and confer undue advantage on their preferred candidates.
The publication of such fake polls is considered fake news and could have adverse consequences, such as post-election violence if left checked.
These polls serve as a warning for Nigerians to be vigilant and scrutinise any information related to the elections, especially in the digital media space, to prevent being misled by politicians who are desperate for power.
Fake polls have been found to significantly impact public opinion and election outcomes.
Opinion polls are an important tool in election coverage, but the reporting of poll findings is a contentious issue, especially when fake polls are involved.
According to the world’s largest online community and repository of electoral knowledge, some countries impose bans on reporting polls for a period ranging from a full month to just 24 hours before Election Day to avoid fake polls from influencing the outcome. In contrast, the United States allows media coverage of opinion polls at any time, but fake poll reporting can be a problem.
Fake polls not only reflect people’s views but can also shape them, leading to attempts to control how or whether they are reported, it said.
Laws or regulations may be put in place to combat fake poll reporting. For instance, Montenegro’s publicly-owned media is forbidden from publicizing any projection of the election results, including opinion poll results. In the UK, the broadcast regulator Ofcom and the BBC’s editorial guidelines require broadcasters to refrain from publishing poll results only on Election Day itself to avoid fake poll reporting.
A total ban on reporting opinion poll findings is not practical, as demonstrated by France’s experience, where a ban on reporting opinion polls in the week before elections was broken by some newspapers in the 1997 legislative elections. Instead, a light touch approach is generally preferred, encouraging the media to develop their own standards for reporting.
Professional and responsible reporting of opinion poll findings is crucial, as fake polls can materially affect the outcome of the election. A total ban on reporting opinion poll findings might find favour in some situations, but it is generally an issue that requires a delicate balance between freedom of speech and responsible reporting, the electoral platform has said.
