Remittance flows into Nigeria has been projected to increase from $20.1 billion in 2021 to about $26 billion by 2025.
Credit rating agency, Agusto & Co., made this known in a report tagged ‘Nigeria Diaspora Remittances: A Tale of Emigration, Policy and Technology.’
The report said the flows would be supported by improved economic conditions in advanced economies.
The firm pointed out that Nigeria’s emigrant base is currently skewed towards the economically productive middle-class demographic, which is positive for remittances and underpins the need to devise strategies targeted at this age group to ensure the sustainability of remittances.
“However, given the significant contribution of students to the emigrating population, Agusto & Co. expects a surge in remittance inflows in the medium term,” it said.
It said the unification of exchange rates would also incentivise remittance inflows through official channels, particularly for investment purposes, as it is likely to improve the FX liquidity position, which would facilitate the repatriation of funds.
“Given Nigeria’s high poverty rate, which increases reliance on foreign aid, Agusto & Co. also anticipates that the need to finance the basic requirements of dependents remains the most important element driving remittances in the near to medium term,” the agency said.
The agency said with $20.1 billion in remittances in 2021, Nigeria was the second-highest recipient in Africa, trailing only Egypt ($28.3 billion).
It further noted that although Egypt and Nigeria received over half of all remittances to Africa, the rise in inflows into Egypt remained robust, at double digits (16%), while growth in Nigeria slowed to 3%.
It added that remittances have proven to be positively correlated with the income of immigrants and economic conditions in the sending countries.
“As more Nigerians, discouraged by the country’s gloomy economic conditions, look overseas for the opportunity, their remittances will continue to play, a crucial role in sustaining the Nigerian economy.
“The growth of these funds has been exceptional, empowering dependents to meet their basic needs, pursue education, access healthcare, and embark on entrepreneurial endeavours,” the agency said.
Agusto pointed out that Nigeria has been dealing with the challenge of emigration and brain drain for decades because of the rising number of people fleeing in search of greener pastures amid the country’s dim economic prospects.
“This growing trend in emigration has been informally tagged “Japa” – a Yoruba word that translates to “flee or run away”.
“As more countries, particularly highly sought-after destinations, have become more welcoming of immigrants because of the global labour shortage experienced post-COVID-19, there are now more opportunities than ever for migrants seeking employment in environments with improved economic and living conditions.
“However, this widespread exodus has left many businesses severely understaffed, which has stunted the expansion of a variety of industries and lowered tax revenues for the government.
“Nonetheless, remittances from the diaspora provide foreign exchange and capital injections to stimulate economic activity. Remittances are also often utilized to support the livelihoods of dependents back home.
“Agusto & Co. believes that the surge in emigration witnessed in 2022 is yet to translate to a commensurate rise in remittances as the majority of the emigrants are students who will not be able to fully join the labour force in their host countries until mid-2023,” the agency said.
The agency explained that in recent years, the rapidly growing global adoption of mobile devices has driven the use of digital technology in remittance services and cross-border payments. COVID-induced movement restrictions have significantly amplified the utilisation of digital money transfer channels.
