On June 3, 2025, I had the distinct honour of participating in a high-level national webinar convened under the leadership of His Excellency Vice President Kashim Shettima, GCON. Organized by the Office of the Vice President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria through the Anticipatory Governance and Foresight Capacity (AGFC) Programme, the closed-door dialogue brought together an exceptional constellation of policymakers, foresight experts, institutional leaders, and development thinkers. The theme — “Transforming Governance in Nigeria: Harnessing the Power of Strategic Foresight and Futures Thinking for Long-Term National Planning”—was both urgent and visionary.
From the outset, the event carried a sense of gravity and forward momentum. Senator Ibrahim Hassan Hadejia, Deputy Chief of Staff to the President, delivered the welcome address. He spoke with clarity and strategic intent about the need for Nigeria to build resilient institutions capable of navigating uncertainty. His remarks signalled a shift in tone—a recognition that a country’s future must not be left to chance or inertia, but actively co-designed through long-term thinking and preparedness.
Foresight, as many leading futurists like Peter Schwartz and Sohail Inayatullah have consistently argued, is not about prediction but about preparation and positioning. It is the discipline of thinking ahead, scanning emerging signals, and constructing multiple plausible futures—then anchoring policy choices in the long-term public interest. This spirit animated the dialogue from start to finish.
The keynote was delivered by Cat Tully, founder of the School of International Futures (SOIF). She was both provocative and inspiring. Tully framed foresight as a democratic act—one that decentralizes power and redistributes agency. She challenged us to interrogate whosefutures we prioritize, and whether our governance structures are fit for purpose in a world defined by volatility, complexity, and systemic risk. She warned against what she called “presentism”—a governance disorder in which short-termism crowds out intergenerational justice.
For Nigeria, a country whose median age is just under 18, this message resonated deeply. Our policy systems, political cycles, and public institutions are often fixated on immediate gains—election timetables, fiscal constraints, annual plans—while the real threats and opportunities of the 21st century loom just beyond the bureaucratic horizon. Climate insecurity, youth unemployment, artificial intelligence, water stress, and regional instability cannot be addressed with yesterday’s tools or thinking.
Next came Dr. Jakkie Cilliers, founder of the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), who delivered a robust technical presentation. He walked us through a range of forecast models that simulate Nigeria’s development pathways under different scenarios—ranging from status quo policy stagnation to transformative institutional reform. His empirical insights reinforced a hard truth: the opportunity cost of inaction is staggering. Nigeria has the demographic potential and geopolitical positioning to lead Africa into the next development frontier—but without anticipatory governance, we risk being perennially reactive, caught off guard by crises that could have been mitigated or transformed into opportunities.
These foundational insights laid the groundwork for a rich and multidimensional panel discussion, expertly moderated by Dr. Julia Bello-Schünemann, a leading foresight advisor and systems thinker. One of the standout interventions, for me as a participant, came from Professor Ayo Omotayo, Director General of the National Institute for Policy and Strategic Studies (NIPSS). He provided a rare window into how NIPSS is institutionalizing foresight within its research, training, and policy advisory functions. His contribution was both strategic and practical.
Professor Omotayo noted that the Institute is actively exploring strategic foresight techniques in its engagement with its course participants. This was heartening to hear. NIPSS has long been a crucible for Nigeria’s strategic leadership, and its pivot toward foresight strengthens the foundation for anticipatory public service. His remarks made clear that “foresighting” must be embedded in policy making across Nigeria and its component untis.
Equally compelling was the intervention by Dr. Olusegun Omisakin, Chief Economist and Director of Research at the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG). He made a powerful case for integrating foresight into macroeconomic governance. Omisakin argued that our economic models must go beyond linear projections and short-term shocks. Instead, they should incorporate signals from the margins, and anticipate structural shifts before they crystalize. His emphasis on aligning Nigeria’s economic planning with plausible and preferred futures was refreshing and long overdue.
The other panelists offered equally rich perspectives. Kolawole Owodunni, Executive Director at the Nigeria Sovereign Investment Authority, spoke about long-term investment strategies and the need to future-proof public finance decisions. Dr. Elisabeth Agbiti-Douglas of the Nigerian Youth Futures Fund emphasized youth inclusion and generational equity, while Melvin Breton, Policy Manager at UNICEF Innocenti, brought in the global development lens, reminding us that foresight is critical for shaping human capital in an age of uncertainty.
The Special Guest Remarks were delivered by Themba Kalua, Director of the Pact for the Future Implementation at the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa. He stressed the importance of futures thinking in achieving Africa’s Agenda 2063 and highlighted the work being done to mainstream foresight at the continental level. His intervention served as a reminder that Nigeria’s strategic choices have implications beyond its borders. As the anchor of West Africa and a key voice in the African Union, Nigeria must lead by example in building anticipatory governance architectures.
This was echoed by Hon. Jabiru Salisu, CEO of AUDA-NEPAD Nigeria, who delivered the Goodwill Message. He outlined how development foresight is being integrated into AUDA-NEPAD’s country support mechanisms, and how Nigeria’s foresight journey can benefit from regional knowledge exchanges and institutional peer learning.
What stood out throughout the session was that foresight is not merely an activity, it is a culture. A mindset. A design principle for governance. It is like planting a baobab tree: the growth is slow, the shade is distant, but the benefits, once matured, are generational. Countries that have embraced this ethic, from Finland to the UAE, have not only anticipated shocks but converted them into springboards for innovation and resilience.
The webinar on June 3rd was more than an intellectual exercise, it was a signal of intent. A statement that Nigeria is ready to stop chasing the future and start shaping it. But one webinar, no matter how well-convened, is not enough. For foresight to take root, it must be institutionalized, woven into how we train civil servants, design curricula, draft budgets, and monitor development progress.
To borrow the words of futurist Riel Miller, “the future is not what will happen, but what we will make happen.” Participating in the event left me convinced that Nigeria stands at an inflection point. The tools, talent, and thinking are emerging. What we need now is political continuity, administrative discipline, and a coalition of actors across sectors committed to embedding foresight not as a luxury, but as a necessity for governance.
