A child that wants to run before its time – before its leg bones, ligaments and sinews have toughened to resist the pull of gravity – immediately will know that it isn’t the right thing to do. It will stumble and then tumble to the ground, uttering a sharp cry of pain for help from father or mother or some elder. This is what has just happened to Niger, our closest neighbour to the north.
Niger is one of a triumvirate of three military juntas that emerged in the last three years in the West African subregion. The others are Mali and Burkina Faso. Last year, all three threatened to leave the regional economic bloc, the Economic Community of West African States [ECOWAS], which had vowed military intervention to restore the overthrown democratic governments. They haven’t formally left but have formed the Alliance of States of the Sahel [AES]. As part of the rhetoric, Niger’s junta has accused Abuja of massing troops to invade Niger. The charge was made publicly by the leader Abdourahamane Tchiani. Foreign Minister, Bakary Yaou Sangare, also alleged that the Nigerian government had a hand in a purported December 13 sabotage of the Niger-Benin oil pipeline in Gaya. Nigeria denied all the charges. The truth, it appeared, and as Nigeria stated then, Tchiani was “only using the playbook of the AES junta leaders – using propaganda and disinformation to divert attention from the mounting governance problems they faced.”
Three months on, reality has now dawned on the Tchiani government.
The country has been facing unusual fuel shortages for several weeks, characterized by winding queues at the few filling stations with supply and stifling economic activity across the land-locked country. Now with nobody to help, not Mali or Burkina Faso, Niger has come crying to “big brother”. According to industry sources in Niamey and Abuja, the situation was so desperate that the junta swallowed its pride [ Jimmy Cliff calls it “foolish pride”] and allowed a delegation led by the chief executive of the Niger petroleum company, SONIDEP, to visit Abuja on an S.O.S. mission. Following a meeting with Nigerian petroleum industry officials, “Some 300 fuel trucks were approved for immediate delivery across the border to Niger,” the sources disclosed.
Industry officials in Niger have blamed the fuel shortages on a confrontation between the government in Niamey and Chinese oil companies, which have long dominated the country’s petroleum sector. The China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) was said to have granted the Niger government an advance of about US$400 million in 2024, using future crude oil deliveries as collateral to help Niger cope with the effects of sanctions imposed by ECOWAS following the July 2023 coup. When it was time to repay the Chinese, the cash-strapped junta attempted to arm-twist China. The face-off resulted in the expulsion of three Chinese officials last week. Official sources in Niamey said the move was the latest by the military government to “assert greater control over national resources.”
The junta had failed to publicly acknowledge the gravity of the economic crisis, with the state-controlled media reportedly ordered to maintain a news blackout on the fuel shortages and the general economic hardship. It is like placing a lid over a boiling water pot. It will reach such a temperature that the vaporizing liquid will knock the lid off and spill over the top. This is what is happening in Niger. Populism is a cheap commodity that can fail, and it does fail often, when it comes face to face with the “consuming fire” of harsh life experiences. The junta in Niamey failed to recognize this. Worse, in its pride it failed to grasp the dynamics of Niger-Nigeria relations. Knowing them would have told them they couldn’t afford to treat issues with Nigeria in the same brusque manner as Burkina Faso and Mali would.
Niger has often been referred to as Nigeria’s 37th State. A bit of exaggeration here but it says much about Niger’s dependency on its southern neighbour. Historically, the two countries are symbiotic. Niger has a large Hausa speaking population that came over originally from Nigeria, dispersed by Uthman Dan Fodio’s jihad of the early 1800s. It was largely not to put the Hausa community in Niger in harm’s way that Nigeria last year stopped short of dispatching a military expedition to Niger. Besides, the country relies on Nigeria for an economic life. Much of its electricity supply comes from Nigeria almost a gratis. This dependency sometimes goes down to the most ridiculous. There was a year that Niger was to host a summit of African leaders under the auspices of the OAU then. General Ibrahim Babangida, who was the Nigerian president at the time, ordered dozens of Mercedes Benz limousines to be delivered to Niamey for ferrying heads of state from the airport and back. Nigeria didn’t take back those vehicles. As recently as 2023, outgoing President Muhammadu Buhari joked that he might go to Niger to reside after leaving office. A joke it was but it underscored the special bond between Niger and Nigeria. That was what the junta in power in Niger now missed because of its “foolish pride.” Now, it has had to take the shocker of the present economic downturn to drive home the point.
