The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that Nigeria’s debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio will increase to 33.1 per cent in 2027.
This figure indicates a downward revision from the 35.3 per cent estimate reported in October for 2027, but higher than the 32.3 per cent expected in 2026.
The projections are contained in the fund’s latest Fiscal Monitor Report launched on Wednesday in Washington DC at the ongoing IMF-World Bank spring meetings.
On April 15, the Debt Management Office (DMO) said Nigeria’s total public debt for federal and state governments hit N159.27 trillion at the end of the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025.
The figure increased by N5.98 trillion from the N153.29 trillion recorded at the end of the third quarter (Q3) and N14.6 trillion higher than the N144.67 trillion booked in Q4 of 2024.
IMF warned of a deteriorating fiscal outlook, despite the global economy showing resilience, saying global gross government debt rose to nearly 94 per cent of GDP in 2025, and that based on current trajectories, it will reach 100 per cent by 2029, “a level previously reached only in the aftermath of World War II”.
According to the report, the conflict in the Middle East could further strain government finances through higher food and fuel prices, tighter financial conditions, lower activity, and rising defence outlays.
If the conflict is prolonged, the organisation said global debt-at-risk could increase by an additional 4 percentage points.
Speaking to journalists on the findings of the report, Rodrigo Valdés, IMF’s director of fiscal affairs, said governments’ responses should protect the most vulnerable when preserving the price signals to help economies adjust.
He advised countries to rebuild fiscal buffers without delay once conditions stabilise.
