Nigeria has been projected to benefit from a sustained increase in global oil prices caused by the ongoing conflict between Israel, the United States, and Iran.
The conflict, which saw the United States and Israel launching attacks on Iran last Saturday, has already led to a sharp rise in global oil prices.
Crude oil prices surged on Thursday toward $84 a barrel, the highest this year, outpacing Nigeria’s 2026 budget benchmark of $64.85 per barrel.
The BMI, in a report titled “US-Iran Conflict: Assessing FX Risks in Sub-Saharan Africa in an Escalatory Scenario”, pointed out that while Sub-Saharan Africa’s (SSA) major currencies will be impacted unevenly, oil-exporting countries like Nigeria are likely to see positive effects from higher crude prices.
It stated that a significant escalation in the Middle East conflict would not only drive energy prices higher but also disrupt key shipping routes, adding that this could lead to a deterioration in the terms of trade for fuel-importing nations while benefiting oil-exporting countries like Nigeria.
It, however, also warned that a flight to safe-haven assets might reduce portfolio inflows, which have been instrumental in improving Nigeria’s external buffers in recent quarters.
