Nigeria’s average daily crude oil production increased significantly to 1.53 million barrels per day (bpd) in January, marking the first time the country will meet its production quota of 1.5 million bpd since it was set.
The production quota was set for the 2024 period at OPEC’s ministerial meeting on November 30, 2023 and in December 2024, was extended to 2026 as Nigeria produced below the quota for over a year.
However, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in its monthly oil market report on Wednesday, said figures obtained from direct communication with Nigerian officials showed that Nigeria recorded 1.53 million bpd in January.
The oil cartel obtains data on crude oil production from two sources: direct communication — which is from member countries — and secondary communication, such as energy intelligence platforms.
According to the report, the current output figure represents a 54,000 or 3.6 per cent increase from the 1.48 million bpd recorded in December 2024.
With the development, Nigeria retained its position as the largest oil producer in Africa, surpassing Algeria, which produced 907,000 bpd in January.
The OPEC report further showed that Congo produced 251,000 barrels of oil per day in the period under review, making the country the third-largest oil producer in Africa.
However, according to the report, OPEC said secondary sources reported that Nigeria’s crude production declined by 2 per cent to 1.49 million bpd in January — from 1.52 million bpd reported in December.
“According to secondary sources, total OPEC-12 crude oil production, total DoC crude oil production averaged 40.62 mb/d in January 2025, which is 118 tb/d lower, m-o-m,” the report said.
“Crude oil output increased mainly in Libya, Congo, and Gabon, while production in Nigeria, UAE, and Venezuela decreased significantly.
“Also, total non-OPEC DoC crude oil production averaged 13.94 mb/d in January 2025, 3 tb/d higher, m-o-m.
“Crude oil output increased mainly in Kazakhstan, while production in Russia decreased.”
OPEC also said Nigeria’s oil production is likely to increase with Dangote refinery nearing full capacity.
“…the oil sector remains central to the economy, and the Dangote Refinery reaching full production capacity should help stabilize the petroleum product supply and possibly lower petrol prices,” OPEC said.
