All eyes will be on Abuja today as the heads of state of the West African regional body ECOWAS meet to deliberate the next course of action in Niger Republic where the military seized power on July 26 toppling the democratically elected president Mohammed Bazoum.
The country’s presidential guard’s commander, Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani, proclaimed himself Niger’s new leader.
Almost immediately, Western powers especially Niger’s former colonizer France and the Unired States including the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) condemned the coup and demanded the restoration of constitutional democracy.
Also economic sanctions were slammed on Niger by the regional body and several partner countries, including France, Germany, and the US, suspended development assistance.
Similarly, ECOWAS gave the military junta one week to reinstate the Western stooge Bazoum and restore order, hinting that it would resort to military intervention otherwise. Its ultimatum expired last Sunday.
Interestingly, ECOWAS members Mali and Burkina Faso rejected the intervention scenario in Niger, declaring that any such move would “amount to a declaration of war” on both countries and trigger self-defensive responses. Meanwhile, Bazoum, currently in prison, has urged Washington to intervene, lest all of the Sahel “fall to Russian influence” – despite a lack of evidence Moscow played a role in the coup. US Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland personally flew to Niger to pressure the new government, warning them against striking any deals with Russian private military company Wagner and urging them to restore the Washington-friendly status quo.
Nigeriens largely supported the coup, according to a recent survey by The Economist – 78% backed the takeover, while 73% wanted their new leaders to retain power “for an extended period” or “until new elections are held.”
As the ECOWAS deadline has come and gone without the threatened invasion, observers will be keen on ECOWAS next move even as sources reportedly said the bloc is unprepared for a full-scale military intervention. Senior military sources who spoke to the Wall Street Journal said more time and adequate planning is needed to carry out the operation.
It is unclear what the West African leaders will do now that diplomatic efforts to negotiate with the coup leaders are faltering. Top officials in the Presidency in Abuja keep insisting that all options are on the table.
While diplomatic shuttles are ongoing to avoid military showdown, the military leadership in Niamey are digging deep and clutching their grip on power. The junta announced a new Prime Minister for the government, Mr. Ali Muhamman Lamine and repudiating all links with the country’s former colonizer. The military leaders announced the denunciation of military agreements with France. Niger currently hosts 1,500 French soldiers.
But, the French military has rejected the Nigerien military junta demand to leave the country and tension was heightened, threat level raised on Wednesday after the junta said that actions of French troops resulted in an attack on Nigerien national guard, adding that a French warplane entered the African nation’s airspace.
“The National Council for the Safeguard of the Fatherland informs the local and international community about the events of extreme seriousness that are taking place in Niger, about the facts of the behaviour of the French forces on our territory …Today, August 9, 2023 at 6.30 am, a military aircraft of French troops took off from N’Djamena [Chad]… This aircraft deliberately stopped all contact with air control after entering our airspace, the positions of the Niger National Guard… were attacked …The actions of the French forces were condemned for unilaterally releasing detained terrorists,” Amadou Adramane, the Nigerien military’s spokesman, said.
If the situation is tense in the air in Niger, on the ground it’s fluid and livid as a former minister in Niger’s recently overthrown government, Rhissa Ag Boula, has launched a resistance movement, seeking to undo the July 26 coup and reinstate Bazoum.
Boula announced the formation of the Council of Resistance for the Republic (CRR) in a statement on Wednesday, calling for the restoration of constitutional order and the arrest of Gen. Tchiani.
“Niger was the victim of a tragedy orchestrated by those who are nevertheless responsible for preserving it,” said Boula, a member of the nomadic Tuareg ethnic group who led rebel factions in Niger uprisings in the 1990s and 2000s, urging people of “goodwill” to join the CCR in its “fight” against “mutiny.”.
The movement is the first internal opposition to the takeover, which could signal a new chapter in the evolving crisis with deeper ramifications.
As stated earlier, thousands of citizens (or millions) are backing Niger’s coup-imposed government. Neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso have also expressed support for the junta and warned regional and international governments against intervening militarily.
Now the most significant aspect to the political conundrum in Niger is the possibility of Russian involvement in the Niger coup which was highlighted by video clips of thousands of Nigerien demonstrators waving the Russian flag and chanting the name of Russian leader Vladimir Putin at the front of the French, embassy in Niamey last week. These actions have spooked the establishment in the United States, and other Western leaders.
Little wonder, the US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken quickly expressed concern that Niger could come under Russian influence though he said Washington does not believe that Moscow or the notorious Wagner Group were connected to the military coup.
In an interview with the BBC on Tuesday, Mr. Blinken admitted that the US is particularly worried about Wagner “possibly manifesting itself” in parts of the Sahel region.
“I think what happened, and what continues to happen in Niger was not instigated by Russia or by Wagner, but… they tried to take advantage of it,” he said, accusing the Wagner group of bringing only trouble wherever it went and claimed that “insecurity has gone up, not down” in countries it has visited.
Blinken’s statement is invariably coming at the heels of media reports that Niger’s military government had been considering inviting the Wagner group into the country to help safeguard their power and deter foreign interventions.
Neither Wagner nor Russian government officials have commented on the junta’s alleged request for help from the contractor. The Kremlin said that any interference in Niger from powers outside the region would be unlikely to improve the situation. “We continue to favor a swift return to constitutional normality without endangering human lives,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.
However, chief Yevgeny Prigozhin has called the coup a “justified rebellion of the people against Western exploitation.”
Wagner has become a major player in the African security landscape, though it’s unclear how its influence on the continent stands after its mutiny against Moscow in June.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said that the future of the contracts Wagner signed with various African countries is a matter for those client governments to decide. The firm’s troops have reportedly operated in such countries as Mali, Burkina Faso, Sudan, Mozambique and the Central African Republic.
Mali and Burkina Faso are among the ECOWAS member states that have sided with the Niger junta following the coup. Bazoum accused the two neighbours of employing “criminal Russian mercenaries.”
African Freedom Institute President Franklin Nyamsi warned in an RT interview that if ECOWAS carried out its threat to send troops into Niger, it would be seen as a declaration of war on the junta’s allies, including Mali and Burkina Faso. Such a conflict could escalate dramatically as the warring factions seek help from the world’s leading military powers, he said, adding, “We are now at the door of a world African war:”
