Nearly half of Hamas’ military battalions in northern and central Gaza have rebuilt some of their fighting capabilities despite more than nine months of Israel’s brutal offensive, according to analyses by the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project, the Institute for the Study of War and CNN.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who faces growing international pressure to agree to a ceasefire and hostage release deal in Gaza, has repeatedly said that Israeli forces are nearing their stated goal of eliminating Hamas and destroying its military capabilities. Addressing a joint meeting of Congress on July 24, he said: “Victory is in sight.”
But forensic analyses of Hamas’ military operations since it led attacks against Israel on October 7, which draw on Israeli and Hamas military statements, footage from the ground and interviews with experts and eyewitnesses, cast doubt on his claims.
Israel has dealt a heavy blow to the militant group: senior Hamas figures have been killed and the ongoing offensive has reduced what once was a professional fighting force into a guerrilla army.
Hamas’ political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, was assassinated last week in Tehran in an attack Iran has blamed on Israel. Israel has not claimed responsibility, but said a day later that Hamas’ top military commander, Mohammad Deif was killed in a July 13 airstrike in Gaza — a report Hamas has neither confirmed nor denied.
And yet, the research, which covers Hamas’ activities up until July, shows that the group appears to have made effective use of dwindling resources on the ground. Several units have made a comeback in key areas cleared by the Israeli military after pitched battles and intensive bombardment, according to the new analyses, salvaging the remnants of their battalions in a desperate bid to replenish their ranks.
“The Israelis would say that they cleared a place, but they haven’t fully cleared these areas, they haven’t defeated these fighters at all,” said Brian Carter, Middle East portfolio manager for Critical Threats Project (CTP), who led the joint research with the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) into patterns of Hamas and Israeli military activity.
“(Hamas) are ready to fight and want to fight.”
The Israel Defense Forces and Israeli Prime Minister’s Office have not responded to CNN’s requests for comment on the findings.
CTP-ISW derive these definitions from US military definitions which are different from Israeli military definitions.
Hamas’ military wing, known as the Qassam Brigades, is divided into 24 batallions spread throughout the territory, according to the Israeli military.
As of July 1, only three of these 24 battalions were combat ineffective, meaning they were destroyed by the Israeli military, according to the assessments by CTP and ISW.
A unit is combat ineffective when it is no longer able to complete its mission. This is frequently represented by no attacks or very few ineffective attacks.
Eight battalions are combat effective, able to carry out missions against Israeli soldiers on the ground in Gaza.
A combat effective unit can accomplish the mission that it is assigned. CTP and ISW rated units combat effective when they assessed that they were defending ground using sophisticated tactics and more advanced weapon systems.
The remaining 13 have been degraded, only able to conduct sporadic, and largely unsuccessful guerrilla-style attacks.
A degraded unit has had losses that impede its ability to execute assigned missions, and it only shows some of the characteristics of a combat effective unit. It may have lost several commanders in a short time period and Israeli military reports could refer to it as “dismantled.”
The battalions in central Gaza are the least damaged in the strip, according to Israeli military sources and the analyses. Israeli sources say they have not adequately “dealt” with those battalions because they are believed to be holding many Israeli hostages.
CTP, ISW and CNN’s analyses of Hamas’ ability to reconstitute focused on 16 battalions in central and northern Gaza, the longest-running targets of the Israeli offensive.
Reconstitution is a set of actions that aim to restore an acceptable level of combat effectiveness for a particular mission after severe degradation. Reconstitution consists of two tasks: regeneration and reorganization.
CNN
