The announcement of Donald Trump’s latest tariff measures is, at best, a calculated gamble, and at worst, a reckless attempt to exert influence in a shifting global economic landscape. But to approach the tariff question solely from the perspective of how it impacts the American domestic economy misses the broader, more disconcerting truth. For all the noise about job losses, inflation, and trade imbalances, the more crucial question remains: How will the rest of the world respond to America’s economic isolationism? To paraphrase the inimitable Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman in Underground Empire, what we are witnessing is less about American power and more about America weaponizing its economy—and this time, the world may not play along.
We should start by understanding the stakes. The U.S. is, in many ways, retreating into itself, following the logic of economic isolationism, not unlike the British with Brexit. The consequences of this path will not only be felt within the United States; they will reverberate across the world. For those of us outside the American bubble, the real question is not how the U.S. fares, but rather how we can capitalize on what seems, at least for now, to be a self-inflicted wound. As a realist scholar of geoeconomics, I’m inclined to observe that while America plays the role of the injured party in this drama, the rest of us have a chance to seize a moment of opportunity.
Take the U.S.-Africa trade relationship, for instance. Over the past two decades, the balance of power has shifted dramatically in favor of China. Where once the U.S. had a commanding position, now China stands as Africa’s largest trade partner. This is no mere fluctuation in the winds of international trade—it is a fundamental reshaping of global economic patterns. And America, with its tariff policies and currency devaluation maneuvers, risks further entrenching this trend. In a way, it is like watching a seasoned boxer losing his edge to a younger, more agile challenger—China.
Here lies the subtlety of America’s miscalculation: its tariff policies are not just an economic tool; they are a geopolitical gambit. As Paul Krugman has long argued, trade protectionism often ends up hurting the very parties that initiate it. In this case, the U.S. is engaging in economic self-harm, seeking to gain at the expense of others, yet the global system has moved beyond the era where such policies would guarantee success. The world is no longer simply reacting to U.S. actions but is actively seeking to create alternative pathways, and China has been quick to capitalize on this shift. China’s ability to offer duty-free access to its market for Africa’s least developed countries exemplifies how the U.S. is losing its grip on emerging markets. This is a pivotal moment where the U.S., through its actions, is effectively inviting the rest of the world to leave it behind.
In the current environment, Trump’s tariff policies are reminiscent of a man desperately trying to stop a river with his bare hands. These tariffs may provide temporary relief for domestic industries, but the longer-term effects will be far-reaching. The global trade network is vast, and the ripple effects of economic isolation will eventually turn into a tsunami of unintended consequences.
We also have to understand that these tariffs, like any other economic strategy, will have to be backed up by the muscle of financial warfare. This is where the American policy apparatus—particularly in regard to the weaponization of the dollar—becomes critical. As Robert Blackwill and Jennifer Harris argue in War by Other Means, economic statecraft has been a cornerstone of U.S. power for decades. The use of sanctions and the dollar’s global dominance have allowed the U.S. to maintain a hegemonic position in the international system. But like the erosion of American manufacturing, this economic monopoly is beginning to show signs of wear. The dollar, despite its strength, is not invulnerable to the forces of market diversification.
Take, for example, the rise of the euro. The U.S. may believe that devaluing the dollar will strengthen its position on the global stage, but what it fails to acknowledge is the cascading effect this will have on Europe. With the euro becoming more competitive, European nations—many of which have been complacent in the past—are now finding themselves with an unexpected advantage. It’s as if America has inadvertently handed Europe a seat at the table in a dinner they thought they were excluded from. As David A. Baldwin notes in Economic Statecraft, these shifts are not merely tactical moves; they represent a new strategic environment. Europe, now emboldened, may finally recognize its leverage and use it to recalibrate the rules of the game.
And then, of course, there is the U.S.-Africa dynamic to consider. For years, the U.S. has relied on its historical ties with African nations, bolstered by programs like the African Growth and Opportunity Act. But with the expiration of such initiatives looming, the U.S. faces an increasingly uncertain future. In this context, tariffs do little to solidify America’s position. Instead, they deepen the chasm between the U.S. and the rest of the world, particularly Africa, where China’s influence grows by the day. The economic pivot toward Asia and Africa could very well leave America isolated, surrounded by a sea of growing trade relations that bypass it entirely.
The irony here is thick. While the U.S. turns inward, hoping that tariffs will restore its lost power, the rest of the world moves forward. The European Union, Switzerland, and even smaller economies like Norway and the UK now have an unprecedented opportunity to rise above the American-centric order. These countries, if they seize the moment, can challenge the notion that the U.S. is the only game in town. As the U.S. plays the role of the wounded titan, others may just come to occupy its space.
Yet, we must proceed with caution. The risks of overestimating one’s position in a world that is becoming less and less dependent on American leadership are real. For all the talk of America’s decline, the U.S. still holds significant economic and military power. Europe, too, faces internal divisions that might prevent it from fully capitalizing on this moment. The emerging multipolarity of the world economy offers a promise, but it also demands a more nuanced approach. As Robert Gilpin suggests in Global Political Economy, we are entering an era of flux where power will be decentralized, and the old rules of geopolitics may no longer apply.
So, while the U.S. seems to be digging its own economic grave, the rest of the world must proceed carefully. We should watch Trump’s tariff policies not merely as a tactical blunder but as the beginning of a new global economic order—one that we will all have to navigate. This is a world where no country, not even America, can afford to act alone for long. The question now is whether others, particularly in Europe and Africa, will realize that the emperor is indeed wearing no clothes.
