Last Saturday, Iran launched the largest drone and missile attack in the world’s history against Israel in retaliation of the April 1 bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus by the Jewish state. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) fired over 300 drones and missiles at Israel in its first-ever direct attack on Israeli territory.
The Iranians carried out their Saturday night attack in waves. It was well planned, well choreographed and well-executed. Since the drones are significantly slower than both fighter jets and missiles, they launched the Shahed drones first. A few hours later, their subsonic cruise missiles were launched, and followed by the Fatah hypersonic ballistic missiles, 15 times faster than sound with a range of 1,400 kilometres. All seven Fatah hypersonic missiles hit their target – the Iron Dome did not shoot down a single one.
Everything was so calculated and coordinated that the drones and rockets of both types reached the targets on the territory of Israel virtually simultaneously, acting as one shock wave.
The question uppermost at the moment is, “what will Israel do?” Well, Israel has been trying to lead the United States into a larger conflict with Iran for some time now. Indeed, some people have speculated that the Israeli attack against the Iranian Consulate in Damascus was designed for just that purpose. But the Iranians were very clever in designing their response – just like they did, when they retaliated against the United States for the assassination of Qasem Soleimani back in 2020, when Iran launched over a dozen missiles against the Al-Asad air base in Iraq, but gave Washington advance notice that that base was going to be struck. Thus, Iran ended up destroying empty buildings but it demonstrated to the United States that it had the capacity to strike any American base in the region with extreme precision and kill as many Americans as they wanted – if they wanted to do that. And America was deterred against future action of that sort. Will Israel be deterred?
No decision has been made yet regarding an Israeli response to the Iranian missile and drone attack, but reports suggest that a potential response would be discussed extensively and will be coordinated with its allies.
After Iran’s unprecedented strike, Tel Aviv now understands that any escalation could mean the destruction of Israel. Any ‘retaliatory strike’ at Iran could potentially escalate the conflict between the two nations. Israel would likely respond with force, leading to a dangerous cycle of retaliation. The probability of further attacks and ounterattacks raises concerns about the destabilization of the region. As tensions escalate, other countries may also be drawn into the conflict, either through direct involvement or by providing support to their respective allies, exacerbating the geopolitical implications.
The Middle East has long been a hotbed of geopolitical tensions, and recent events have brought the region to the brink of a major war. The conflict between Iran and Israel has broader implications for the power dynamics in the Middle East. Both countries are influential players in the region, with significant support from various allies. Iran’s actions has strengthened its position as a key actor in the region. By demonstrating its military capabilities and willingness to confront Israel, Iran have gained support from millions in the Middle East and other countries that are critical of Israel’s actions. This could potentially bolster Iran’s position in the region, challenging the influence of traditional powerhouses like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
The Middle East is a crucial hub for global energy markets, and any conflict in the region can have significant implications for oil prices and global economic stability. As tensions rise, there is a heightened risk of disruptions to oil supplies, particularly if the conflict spreads to key oil-producing countries in the region. Such disruptions could lead to a sharp increase in oil prices, negatively impacting economies worldwide and potentially triggering a global economic downturn.
Most significantly, the involvement of major global powers like the United States, Russia, and China in the escalating tensions between Iran and Israel have significant geopolitical implications. Each of these powers has its own interests, alliances, and regional strategies, which will shape their approach to the conflict and influence the overall dynamics.
The United States has historically been a strong ally and supporter of Israel. It has a vested interest in maintaining Israel’s security and stability in the region. In the event of an escalation, the U.S. is likely to provide political, diplomatic, and military support to Israel. This could include intelligence sharing, military assistance, and diplomatic efforts to rally international support for Israel’s position.
Moreover, the U.S. has been critical of Iran’s regional activities and its nuclear program. If tensions escalate, the U.S. may take a more assertive stance against Iran, potentially increasing economic sanctions and diplomatic pressure. The United States could also use its influence to mobilize international support for isolating Iran and curbing its regional influence.
In recent years, Russia has been a key player in the Middle East, particularly through its involvement in the Syrian conflict. Russia maintains a robust relationship with Iran. In the event of an escalation, Russia is likely to support Tehran militarily and diplomatically.
China’s involvement in the Middle East has primarily focused on economic interests, particularly energy security. As a major importer of oil from the region, China has a stake in maintaining stability and preventing disruptions to its energy supplies. In the event of a conflict, China is likely to prioritize stability and a peaceful resolution.
China has traditionally maintained a policy of non-interference and emphasizes diplomacy and dialogue. It may provide diplomatic support for de-escalation efforts, potentially pushing for multilateral negotiations to address the underlying issues. China’s economic interests and its desire to safeguard regional stability will shape its engagement in the conflict.
While the involvement of United States, Russia and China could exacerbate the situation due to potential great power rivalry, there is also a possibility for cooperation in diplomatic efforts to prevent further escalation. The actions and decisions of these major powers will significantly impact the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East and the broader international community.
However, the risks and consequences of a major war in the Middle East are grave and far-reaching. The humanitarian crisis, loss of life and infrastructure, regional destabilization, economic impact, escalation of conflict, nuclear proliferation concerns, and threats to global security are just some of the potential consequences. It is imperative for all parties involved, as well as the international community, to prioritize diplomatic solutions, de-escalation to avoid the devastating consequences that a major war would bring to the region and beyond.
