The International Monetary Fund has raised Nigeria’s economic growth forecast for 2026 to 4.4 per cent, up from its earlier projection of 4.2 per cent.
The revised outlook was published in the IMF’s January 2026 update of the World Economic Outlook launched on Monday.
Nigeria’s economy is now expected to grow by 4.4 per cent in 2026, compared with the 4.2 per cent forecast issued in October 2025.
The IMF made no major changes to its near-term outlook, suggesting that the upgrade is driven largely by expectations beyond the immediate horizon.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, regional growth was revised upward from 4.0 per cent to 4.1 per cent for 2025, and from 4.3 per cent to 4.4 per cent for 2026, indicating a broadly shared recovery trend.
South Africa’s growth outlook also improved slightly, with forecasts rising to 1.3 per cent for 2025 and 1.4 per cent for 2026, up from earlier projections.
Overall, the data suggests that Nigeria’s improved outlook is consistent with gradual but widespread economic strengthening across the region rather than an isolated revision.
In its October 2025 World Economic Outlook, the IMF had projected Nigeria’s 2026 growth at 4.2 per cent, reflecting lingering concerns around inflation, fiscal pressures, and structural constraints.
Since then, policymakers have continued to pursue reforms aimed at strengthening fiscal coordination, stabilising the macroeconomic environment, and improving productivity across key sectors.
The IMF has repeatedly emphasised the importance of structural reforms in driving sustainable growth across emerging and developing economies, including Nigeria.
The January 2026 revision suggests that the Fund now sees a stronger payoff from these reform efforts over the medium term.
Last week, the World Bank similarly increased its projection for Nigeria’s economic growth rate for 2026 to 4.4 per cent from the 3.7 per cent it forecasted in June 2025.
The global financial institution also upgraded Nigeria’s economic growth rate for 2027 to 4.4 per cent from 3.8 per cent and estimated that Nigeria’s economy grew by 4.2 per cent in 2025, compared to the 3.6 per cent forecasted in June last year.
