The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded Nigeria’s economic growth projection, forecasting a 3.9 per cent expansion in 2025.
The institution also projected that the country’s economy will grow by 4.2 per cent in 2026.
The IMF announced the revised figures on Tuesday during the launch of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) 2025 at the ongoing World Bank and IMF Annual Meetings in Washington, D.C.
In its July 2025 update, the IMF had projected Nigeria’s growth at 3.4 per cent, but the latest report reflects a 0.5 percentage point increase.
The point increase signals renewed confidence in the country’s reform-driven economic recovery.
For 2026, the IMF projected that the Nigerian economy would grow by 4.2 per cent, an improvement from 3.2 per cent it predicted in July.
The revised projection places Nigeria ahead of South Africa but slightly below the broader Sub-Saharan African regional average.
According to the report, South Africa’s growth forecast was raised marginally from 1.0 to 1.1 per cent for 2025 but revised downward from 1.3 to 1.2 per cent for 2026. Meanwhile, Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth outlook improved from 4.0 to 4.1 per cent for 2025 and from 4.3 to 4.4 per cent for 2026.
The IMF attributed Nigeria’s upgraded growth forecast to a combination of supportive domestic factors, including increased oil production, rising investor confidence, and a more favourable fiscal stance projected for 2026.
“Whereas growth in Nigeria is revised upward on account of supportive domestic factors, including higher oil production, improved investor confidence, a supportive fiscal stance in 2026, and given its limited exposure to higher US tariffs, many other economies see significant downward revisions because of the changing international trade and official aid landscape,” part of the report reads.
Globally, the IMF projects that growth will moderate to 3.2 per cent in 2025 and further to 3.1 per cent in 2026, signalling a slight improvement from the July 2025 WEO update but remains 0.2 percentage points below earlier forecasts made prior to recent global policy shifts.
“This is an improvement relative to the July WEO Update—but cumulatively 0.2 percentage point below forecasts made before the policy shifts in the October 2024 WEO, with the slowdown reflecting headwinds from uncertainty and protectionism, even though the tariff shock is smaller than originally announced,” IMF said.
The report further notes that advanced economies are expected to expand by around 1.5 per cent over 2025–2026, with the United States slowing to 2.0 per cent.
The IMF said emerging markets and developing economies are projected to grow just above 4.0 per cent during the same period.
Global inflation is forecast to decline to 4.2 per cent in 2025 and 3.7 per cent in 2026, while world trade volume is expected to grow at an average rate of 2.9 per cent in 2025–2026—slower than the 3.5 per cent recorded in 2024, as trade fragmentation continues to limit gains.
