The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that Nigeria’s economy will expand by 4.1 per cent in 2026 and accelerate to 4.3 per cent in 2027.
The projection is contained in the IMF’s July 2026 World Economic Outlook Update, released on Wednesday and titled, Global Economy in Crosscurrents of War and Technology.
The report forecast global growth to moderate from an estimated 3.5 per cent in 2025 to 3.0 per cent in 2026 before recovering to 3.4 per cent in 2027.
It stated that global economic growth is expected to slow to 3.0 per cent next year amid the combined effects of geopolitical conflicts, inflationary pressures, and uneven gains from technological advancement.
According to the IMF, although persistent increases in the prices of essential goods continue to threaten household welfare, Nigeria’s improved outlook is supported by stronger macroeconomic stability and favourable terms of trade following recent policy reforms.
The report noted that the global economy remains caught between the disruptive effects of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the growth opportunities presented by rapid advances in Artificial Intelligence.
It explained that while energy-exporting countries outside the conflict zone are benefiting from stronger commodity prices, economies integrated into the AI-driven technology value chain are recording stronger economic activity, even where they remain net energy importers.
“The impact varies widely based on countries’ exposure to the war and position in the technology value chain. Energy exporters outside the conflict zone benefit from favourable terms of trade, whereas economies plugged into the technology-led upturn experience stronger activity even if they are energy importers,” the report indicated.
However, the IMF warned that energy-importing countries with limited participation in the technology value chain are likely to experience weaker economic performance due to rising energy costs and limited productivity gains.
The Fund also projected that global headline inflation will increase from an estimated 4.1 per cent in 2025 to 4.7 per cent in 2026 before easing to 3.9 per cent in 2027, indicating that the disinflation trend observed since early 2024 has stalled.
For Sub-Saharan Africa, economic growth is expected to remain steady at 4.3 per cent in 2026 before rising slightly to 4.5 per cent in 2027. However, the IMF cautioned that the regional outlook masks significant differences among countries owing to varying levels of policy space, reform implementation, and exposure to external shocks.
