Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has been projected to grow to 4.22 per cent in Q4 2025, an increase from 3.98 per cent in Q3.
Multi-asset investment management firm, CardinalStone, made the projection in its recently released Macro Research note.
Earlier this week, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released a report which showed that Nigeria’s economy grew by 3.98 per cent in the third quarter of 2025, marking a slight improvement over the 3.86 per cent recorded in the same period of 2024 but a decline compared to the 4.23 per cent in Q2’25.
Reacting to the NBS data, CardinalStone said the dip in the Q3’25 GDP had been anticipated, given softer oil output, a consequence of fading supportive base effects.
It, however, said a rebound is anticipated in the last quarter of the year, which is expected to be driven by improving macroeconomic conditions.
The firm noted that the recently released PMI numbers for November 2025 showed a strong and broad-based expansion in aggregate economic activities and it perceives that this robust output is likely to translate into strong GDP numbers for Q4’25.
“Similarly, with macroeconomic conditions improving, we expect this to further filter into strong GDP numbers. Overall, we forecast Q4’25 GDP at 4.22 per cent, translating into a full-year 2025 growth of 3.92 per cent,” the economic update indicated.
On the performance of the economy in the third quarter, analysts at CardinalStone said oil production moderated in the period under review to 1.64 mb/d (vs. 1.68 mb/d in Q2’25), due to scheduled maintenance activities carried out at some upstream facilities and delays in the commencement of operations at OMLs 71 and 72.
In the non-oil sector, which recorded faster growth, currency appreciation and moderating inflation served as anchors.
A part of the report read: “The combination of both factors led to improved domestic consumption, supporting a faster pace of growth in the trade sector. In the same vein, financial services, which are largely banks, profited from elevated OMO rates, which averaged 28.0% in the period (vs. 27.5% in Q2’25). Banks also enjoyed higher fees and commissions in the period, providing an additional layer of support for output.
“On the flip side, growth slowed in the ICT sector, as the Nigerian Communications Commission continued to deactivate SIM cards not linked to the NIN. Elsewhere, the agric sector growth scaled to the highest level in 14 quarters, stemming from improved output due to the onset of the harvest season. The improving macroeconomic conditions are yet to be evident in the manufacturing sector, as elevated borrowing costs continue to dissuade activity. As such, the cumulative banking credit to the private sector was lower in the review period compared to Q2’25.”
