All serious analyses would have concluded that the Nigerian Elections of 2023 were going to challenge the very foundations of the country.All the explosive elements were prominent in the designs and plans to capture power and control of Africa’s most populous nation loosely classified among aspirants for a status as democratic, and one of the most strategic in terms of regional and global influence. What may have been underrated is the level of damage which the elections will trigger.
A good threat analysis would have raised the active and unrestrained manipulation of faith and ethnicity into major campaign instruments; the entrance of a third force with pronounced ethnic, religious and demographic character which will represent a relatively new element in traditional dispositions of voters; a weak central authority which was, at best, ambivalent over its successors, and at worst hostile to specific outcomes; an electoral body full of confidence but low on crisis management skills; a major entrant in the form of unrestrained social media with the proven capacity to create alternative worlds and get millions to live permanently in them; an array of political saboteurs closely stalking the electoral process, and toughened politicians who were willing to wreck the country if that is what it took to win it.
Now that the elections are almost over, and we are moving into the second major set of tremors in a convoluted electoral process where most winners are decided by judges, not voters, we can see the outlines of the damage in the poisonous politics we run under the cover of democracy. A same faith ticket was adopted long ago by Tinubu as a vote winner.A wily politician like him must have known that he would split the country right down the middle over his risky choice.No law stopped any other politician copying Tinubu by floating a Christian-Christian ticket. Tinubu’s decision alone provided a bitter rallying call to line up behind him if you thought two Muslims at the helm of affairs will transform Nigeria into a Muslim country, or line up against him if you saw the decision as a monumental assault on the Christian faith and contempt against a country that was searching for unifying elements.Those contesting against him thought he had shot himself in the feet.He soldiered on, piling other identities on his considerable asset of cheerleaders, weakening resistance against his faith-tainted campaign by igniting local support for it everywhere it was threatened.
Faith thus became a major determinant in the elections, but Tinubu was not its only benefactor.The PDP thought it was home and dry in a contest in which, between it and the Labour Party, they thought they could fight Tinubu with one hand tied behind his back.Labour in particular turned the Church into an effective campaign asset, mobilizing communities particularly in the North to vote against Tinubu as a profound act of faith.PDP went to the grassroots, countering the strong campaign that a Muslim-Muslim ticket had to be accepted by Muslims as an act of strong faith, by attempting to expose it as a cynical exploitation of the faith of the Muslim, a desperate attempt by a party that had frittered away all its election assets under the current administration. A strong campaign to reduce distances between Muslim and Christian Yoruba was helped by the elevation of ethnicity over faith.Across the country,damaging campaign with faith at its core was covered in other volatile identities: ethnicity and partisanship which had been thoroughly re-conditioned by being purchased afresh.
By the time the February 2023 elections held, the nation had been primed to expect a near-flawless election, results that will expose our retreat to particulars and divisive elements in our attempt to build a country of citizens. We anticipated responses of voters that may give a clue to politicians over what mattered to the voter and whether, on the whole, the country will move forward or backwards.The elections said INEC had issues it had no business having in 2023, the results were going to be bitterly disputed, faith had emerged as a principal factor in the manner we choose leaders, the electoral process had become more vulnerable to violence and illegal inducement of voters, the Nigerian state was too weak to guarantee the expression of popular will.The first elections exposed massive weaknesses and gaps which spurred politicians to exploit them.INEC conducted the second set of elections with the heavy cross of the first on its neck.
Now we reap the fruits of our misadventures, led by a rogue media that sets popular agenda and politicians who will not accept boundaries set by law and the spirits of democratic contests.It will be amusing, but for its tragic commentary on the desperation of politicians, to see Nigerians’ reaction over a leaked audio conversation between LP’s Obi and a famous Bishop in which the former was begging for the Church’s support.Which Nigerian politician has not begged for support from religious leaders, and who among the big ones has not spent huge amounts to get men of God swing elections in his favour? Who is the architect of the fantasy of an Interim Government, and who do they think we are, imbeciles? Where is the government that is sworn to uphold the law, protect free speech and punish violations when mainstream media and a virulent social media see a country in a free fall and push it faster? Will Nigerians trust another electoral body? Ever?
For what it is worth( and it is worth a lot) it should be stated that Nigerians expect the Election Tribunals and the courts to be just, fair and competent.The persons they declare as duly elected will have authority to govern.Elections they reject will be conducted again.We will not go to war over the elections. Fighting will not change verdicts, but improvements in the electoral body and the conduct of politicians will give popular will greater chance of determining leaders.Those who emerge leaders should realize that we are near rock bottom.We cannot have another election that generates this, or higher levels of bitterness and division. We still have leaders and laws in place. Unless they have already given up on the country, this is the time to stop the slide to irretrievable disaster that will also consume them. Enough.
