President Bola Tinubu declared last week Wednesday that an “autocratic contagion” is spreading across Africa and he is committed to working with other heads of state in the continent to defend democracy.
Tinubu’s statement was his first response to the military coup in Gabon and it coincidentally tallied with the spirit of last week’s article titled, “Democracy vs Autocracy”.
Today, I intend to reflect on this topic and explore the dynamics of this evolving, swirling scenario by explaining why autocracy is staging a comeback in the continent’s body polity.
President Tinubu, who is leading ECOWAS’ efforts to reverse the coup in neighbouring Niger, said he’s “watching developments unfolding in Gabon very closely and with deep concern over the “seeming autocratic contagion appearing to spread to other parts of the African continent.”
Perhaps, the president, currently attending the G20 Summit in New Delhi, India, may be distracted by events unfolding in both Niger and Gabon. But he should not stress himself too much on this matter because there are other pressing issues requiring his attention domestically. The wave of military coups across Africa is being propelled by a revolutionary fervour engulfing the globe at the moment, which is influenced by the emerging geopolitical landscape. By now, the president must be fully aware of the intriguing power play and the ongoing global balance of power struggle which has far-reaching ramifications. There’s little he can realistically do to change things. As Nigeria’s president, Tinubu should focus more on fulfilling his electoral promises and delivering good governance. In the sub-region, as ECOWAS Chairman, he should demonstrate high sense of responsibility and moral rectitude amidst pressure from Western powers to invade Niger Republic in the wake of the military coup in that country as well as provide the leadership needed that would ensure the collective development of the region.
Being the president of Africa’s most populous country and its biggest economy, Tinubu should be at the vanguard of all issues concerning the continent especially at this auspicious time when astute leadership is required to steer the African ship against tidal waves of geopolitics and challenging times. Tinubu should join hands with other progressive leaders in the continent to chart a path that will emancipate Africa from evil machinations of foreign powers.
Africa is the political battle ground in the unfolding scenario. What’s happening today in Libya, Sudan, Congo DR, Mozambique and the Sahel points to that effect. We are reverting back to the Cold War era of proxy wars and strife engineered by the superpowers of the capitalist/imperialists West on one side and the communist East (Soviet Union) on the other.
Radical changes and power paradigm shifts occur every four decades or even less than that depending on the circumstances. In this case, we are in the verge of a new global realignment. What’s happening today in the Sahel and elsewhere which President Tinubu described as “contagion of autocracy” is an indication that some African countries, mainly the Francophone states, are shifting positions, realigning with the emerging new international order through the barrel of the gun, not the ballot, which seems untenable.
When the spate of military coups started in Mali in 2020 and later 2021, Guinea in 2021 and Burkina Faso in 2022, it was immediately clear that relations between France and its former West African colonies were entering an acute phase. But the severity and persistence of the divorce have exceeded expectations. In December 2019, few could have imagined the current level of severance in diplomatic relationships and such a thorough dismantling of all ties between Paris and its former West African colonies. For several decades, France had toyed, manipulated, cheated, abused, serially and stealthily pilfered these nations. Today, they are rising via the military to reassert their sovereignty and independence.
Simply put, the citizens of Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Niger and Gabon are taking their countries and destiny back into their own hands. Thus, the world should grant them space and time to chart a new course for their sovereign states.
Once seen as a beacon of hope and political stability in the continent, democracy is faltering across Africa. It is plagued by it’s own limitations coupled with lack of transparency, greed for political power and corruption. The sit-tight attitude of some leaders and the undemocratic behaviour of the political class tend to overheat the polity, creating grounds for tension and upheavals.. The increasing number of such instances of dynastic rule under “democratic dispensation” is a clear indication that Africans are not willing to accept democratic norms and principles.
For a democracy to function well, there’s a need to have a credible elections at intervals and peaceful transfers of power. Unfortunately, Africa has been plagued by irresponsibility of the political class which exposed the fragility of democratic institutions. Countries that have fought for democracy for many years are now grappling with the reality. Democracy has become a tool for suppression and oppression in many African states. Interestingly, there have been widespread allegations of Western meddling and interference in many elections conducted in Africa, leading to insinuations that the Western powers, the so-called protagonists of democracy, are not sincere torchbearers of the gospel they preach.
Africa is a very diverse and heterogeneous geographical region with vast differences in culture, traditions and heritage. It is therefore, unfeasible and impracticable to have a similar political system for the entire region. Democracy could work in Nigeria but it cannot necessarily thrive in Niger. More so, even inside a democracy, there are demagogues just as there could also be benign dictators within an autocracy. That’s the irony.
