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Causation versus coincidence

by Mahmud Jega
April 1, 2021
in Lead of the Day, On the hot burner
0
Causation versus coincidence

Kaduna State health worker Hannatu Tanko

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A viral video of Kaduna State health worker Hannatu Tanko has been widely cited since weekend as “proof” that the COVID vaccine currently being administered in Nigeria is dangerous. This Madam said she was vaccinated on Thursday last week, had a spell of dizziness that evening and began vomiting blood through her nose and mouth the next day. The “conclusion” is that the vaccine caused her illness.

Without firm medical proof, this is a case of mixing up causation with coincidence. Many Nigerians who did not get vaccinated that day also had dizziness spells, and there must be many people across Nigeria who vomited blood even though they did not take the vaccine.

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Who told Nigerians that when two events occur together, one must have caused the other? Coincidence is a common occurrence. If you insult somebody’s father and the person dies the next day, are we sure it is the insult that caused his death? People who never took the COVID vaccine are falling sick and dying in Nigeria every day, so why is anyone saying that when a person who was vaccinated falls sick or even dies, it was the vaccine that caused it?

When two events coincide, it does not necessarily mean that one caused the other. Doctors should thoroughly test Madam Hannatu’s blood and other body fluids to determine what made her sick. It could be the vaccine, or it could one of a thousand other things.

 

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