The Republic of Cameroon, often dubbed “Africa in miniature” for its geographical and cultural diversity, stands once again at a political precipice. The presidential election held on October 12, 2025, was not merely a routine democratic exercise; it was a profound reckoning with the nation’s four-decade political status quo, the anxieties of a frustrated youth, and the simmering threat of widespread civil unrest. As the commercial hub of Douala and the political capital of Yaoundé hold their breath, awaiting the official results from the Constitutional Council, the air is thick with the promise of more than just a victory declaration—it holds the very real potential for the eruption of fierce post-electoral violence. This contention is rooted in a deeply flawed political system, the seemingly unyielding grip of an aging incumbent, and the stark disqualification of the main opposition challenger, factors that collectively transform an election into a crucible of national tension.
At the heart of the crisis is the longevity of President Paul Biya. At 92, and having been in power for 43 years, Biya is the world’s oldest and one of its longest-serving elected heads of state. His pursuit of an eighth term, enabled by a 2008 constitutional amendment that scrapped term limits, embodies a system of entrenched power that has become the central flashpoint of national frustration. For many Cameroonians, particularly the young—who constitute a vast majority of the population—the election is a ritual of continuity, not a vehicle for change. This sense of a “foregone conclusion” is arguably more destabilizing than a genuine contest, breeding cynicism and fueling the conviction that change will not come through the ballot box.
The immediate source of the high tension surrounding the 2025 poll lies in the handling of the opposition. The disqualification of Maurice Kamto, the runner-up in the highly disputed 2018 election and the most formidable challenger to the ruling Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM), was a defining moment of the campaign. Authorities cited technical grounds for his exclusion, but to the opposition and a significant portion of the electorate, this move was the final, transparent maneuver of the incumbent’s party to clear the path to victory. Kamto’s exclusion, combined with the inability of other candidates—including former Biya allies like Issa Tchiroma Bakary and Bello Bouba Maigari—to forge a united opposition front, has created a fragmented and weakened challenge. This lack of a unified political alternative only reinforces the perception that the democratic machinery, including the electoral body ELECAM and the Constitutional Council, is a tool of the regime, not an impart al arbiter of the people’s will.
This skepticism is not merely political posturing; it is grounded in historical precedent. Cameroon’s journey through multi-party democracy has been repeatedly marred by violence and political suppression. The 1992 presidential election, widely believed to have been rigged against the opposition Social Democratic Front (SDF), resulted in significant unrest, especially in the Anglophone regions like Bamenda, which faced severe government crackdowns and prolonged blockades. More recently, the aftermath of the 2018 poll saw mass protests, arrests of opposition leaders and militants, and accusations from UN human rights experts of a repressive climate using anti-terrorism laws to quell peaceful assembly. The current delay in the announcement of the 2025 results—a situation reminiscent of the 15-day delay in 2018—exacerbates the public’s distrust and creates a vacuum for rumors and speculation, providing a perfect incubator for unrest.
The most acute threat of violence is concentrated in the major urban centers, Yaoundé and Douala. These cities are not only the seats of political and economic power, but they are also home to the most politically active and disaffected segments of the population. The recent, sporadic demonstrations demanding transparency in the counting process are seen as early warnings. Security analysts have predicted that the most likely scenario following the expected Biya victory is a period of civil disturbance that would require the deployment of security forces, potentially leading to curfews and disruptions to commercial activities, particularly in the vital port city of Douala. The military’s role is particularly delicate; while a source of regime stability, recent military appointments are viewed as a pre-emptive measure to ensure civil order and reward loyalty, signaling the government’s readiness to meet protests with force.
Moreover, the contentious presidential poll cannot be divorced from the broader, ongoing national crises. The long-running Anglophone Crisis in the Northwest and Southwest regions continues to bleed the country, with separatists battling government forces. This conflict, rooted in historical marginalization, has already displaced over a million people and instilled a culture of violence and impunity. Any post-election crackdown in the major cities will be overlaid on this existing trauma and further strain the military and security apparatus, raising the risk of the violence spiraling out of control across multiple fronts. Simultaneously, the country grapples with one of the world’s most neglected humanitarian crises, marked by massive displacement, acute food insecurity, and the constant threat of Boko Haram attacks in the Far North. The political instability of a disputed election simply heaps another layer of suffering and insecurity onto an already fractured state.
Beyond the immediate political maneuvers, the underlying engine of the contention is the widespread frustration among Cameroon’s enormous youth population. Disenchanted with pervasive corruption, limited job prospects, and a geriatric political elite that appears completely divorced from their reality, this generation is a volatile force. Their political apathy, demonstrated by some who “tore up their voter registration cards,” is less a sign of indifference and more an expression of utter disbelief in the system’s legitimacy. Should the results—and the political maneuvering to secure them—be seen as an affirmation of the status quo, their disappointment could easily shift from apathy to active, potentially violent, revolt. The calls by figures like the Archbishop of Douala for greater transparency and against government malpractice further legitimize the public’s grievances, creating a moral and societal foundation for mass opposition.
In sum, the 2025 Cameroonian presidential election is a defining moment for the nation, encapsulating the struggle between a tenacious, decades-old regime and an increasingly frustrated and disillusioned populace. The contention is not merely about who wins, but about the very legitimacy of the institutions that govern the country. The disqualification of the strongest challenger, the state’s preparation for civil unrest in Yaoundé and Douala, and the heavy shadow of historical post-electoral violence create a situation where a single declaration of results could be the spark that ignites the smoldering tensions across the country. The world watches, not just for the name of the victor, but for whether Cameroon can navigate this political flashpoint without descending into the very violence that its political system appears to be so meticulously manufacturing.
