The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), once a beacon of regional integration and stability in West Africa, is facing a profound crisis. The breakaway of the military junta led Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, coupled with the growing influence of Russia, have created a schism within the bloc, threatening its very existence.
ECOWAS, established in 1975, was founded on the principles of economic cooperation, political stability, and regional integration. Its initial success in promoting trade and fostering dialogue was overshadowed by recurring political instability, particularly in the Sahel region. The 2012 Malian coup, followed by the rise of Islamist insurgency, exposed the fragility of the bloc’s security apparatus and its inability to effectively address the complex challenges of governance and development.
The recent declaration of confederacy by Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso to be known as the AES represent a significant fissure. Last Sunday’s declaration in Niamey, Niger, came on the eve of ECOWAS Heads of State summit in Abuja, was another display of defiance by the three Sahelian states. It was also a spite on the ineffective regional bloc which will soon be celebrating its golden jubilee This action, according to the military juntas, is driven by a strong desire to assert their sovereignty and independence from Western neocolonialism, and to address challenges such as economic hardship, corruption, terrorism and insurgency, which have not only destabilized their respective countries but also served as factors for further instability across the region. The emergence of AES, coupled with the weakness of ECOWAS in responding effectively to the challenges facing the subregion, could emboldened other countries to join the fold, creating a serious domino effect.
The Malian coup of 2020 marked a turning point in the relationship between ECOWAS and its member states. Despite imposing sanctions and demanding a swift return to constitutional order, ECOWAS struggled to exert meaningful influence on the junta. The subsequent decision by Mali to breakup with former colonial masters, France, and seek closer ties with Russia further alienated the bloc.
The coups in Niger and Burkina Faso, mirroring the trajectory of Mali, have further deepened the crisis within ECOWAS. Both countries, facing similar challenges of poverty, insecurity and governance failures, have embraced a similar path of military rule and closer ties with Russia. This trend has sparked fears of a broader regional shift towards authoritarianism and the potential for a new Cold War proxy conflict in West Africa.
Russia’s growing influence in the Sahel, and most recently in Senegal, is worrisome to Western powers and their lackeys in the region. The Russians have provided military and security assistance to Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, offering a counterpoint to Western influence and providing a lifeline to struggling governments. This engagement has not only strengthened the position of the military juntas but also created a wedge between ECOWAS and the breakaway states.
The disintegration of ECOWAS has far-reaching consequences for the region. The weakened bloc will be less able to address the shared challenges of poverty and insecurity. The rise of military rule in key countries will further undermine regional cooperation governance and mutual trust, creating an environment ripe for instability and conflict. The growing influence of Russia in the region will also pose a significant threat to Western interests and could lead to a new era of geopolitical competition.
Addressing the crisis within ECOWAS requires a multi-pronged approach. Firstly, the bloc needs to reform its governance structures and enhance its capacity to respond effectively to crises. This includes strengthening its security apparatus, promoting good governance, and addressing the root causes of instability. Secondly, ECOWAS must engage in constructive dialogue with the breakaway states, seeking common ground and addressing their grievances. This requires recognizing the legitimate concerns of these countries while upholding the principles of sovereignity and good governance.
The future of West Africa, and its ability to overcome the challenges of poverty, insecurity, and climate change, hinges on the success of this endeavor.
The disintegration of ECOWAS, fueled by the military coups in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, presents a significant challenge to regional stability and integration. To rebuild unity and address the underlying causes of the crisis, ECOWAS needs to adopt a multi-faceted approach that prioritizes dialogue, diplomacy, and a genuine understanding of the grievances of the breakaway states.
Following his re-election as the regional bloc’s chairman at the summit in Abuja on Monday, President Bola Tibubu promised to do all that is necessary to bring the Sahel states back to the ECOWAS family. The bloc assigned the Senegal president Basirou Faye, a close ally of Russia and friend to the AES to spearhead the mediation. Already, ECOWAS are working out some strategies to engage with the three countries with hope of restoring unity within the bloc.
ECOWAS plans to initiate direct and sustained dialogue with the military juntas in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. This dialogue would be conducted at the highest level, involving heads of state and key political figures from both sides.
This can help create a platform for negotiation and a potential roadmap for a return to democratic governance and fostering regional integration. However, this move could hit a brick wall from the onset as there are clear indications that military junta in the AES will not yield to persuasions and pressure at this moment.
What is required at present is mutual trust and respect. ECOWAS should identify areas of common interest and cooperation, focusing on issues like security, economic development, and regional integration. This can serve as a basis for building trust and fostering a sense of shared purpose.
Most significantly, ECOWAS needs to conduct a thorough analysis of the underlying factors that led to the coups, including economic hardship, corruption, Western subservience and lack of effective governance. This understanding is crucial for addressing the grievances of the breakaway states and developing effective solutions.
Instead of insisting on restoring democratic governance, the bloc should prioritize economic development initiatives, particularly in the Sahel region, to address the economic disparities that contribute to instability.
Rebuilding unity within ECOWAS requires a comprehensive approach that addresses the root causes of the crisis, promoting dialogue and diplomacy, and fostering regional cooperation. By engaging with the breakaway states, addressing their grievances, ECOWAS can restore stability and integration in West Africa. This requires a commitment to long-term solutions, a willingness to compromise, and a shared vision for a peaceful and prosperous future for the region.
