After 17 years of wrangling, African leaders finally created a new continent-wide free trade zone three years ago, amid a blaze of excitement.
However, as leaders prepare to head to Addis Abeba for the annual African Union summit this weekend, turning the historic agreement into reality remains a difficult task.
The African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA), described as the world’s largest free trade agreement in terms of population, includes 54 of 55 African countries, with Eritrea the lone holdout.
On Saturday, two days of talks on the theme “Accelerating AfCFTA Implementation” begin.
AfCFTA’s objective is to expand intra-African trade by 60 percent by 2034 by abolishing practically all barriers, creating an economic bloc of 1.3 billion people with a total gross domestic product of $3.4 trillion.
Currently, African countries trade just approximately 15% of their commodities and services with one another, compared to more than 65% with European countries.
According to the World Bank, if completely implemented, AfCFTA will lift 50 million Africans out of extreme poverty and increase incomes by 9% by 2035.
However, execution has fallen well short of that aim, encountering roadblocks such as arguments over tariff reductions and border restrictions prompted by the Covid epidemic.
According to the International Crisis Group (ICG), this year’s summit comes at a “critical juncture” for Africa, noting Ethiopia’s embryonic peace process, wars in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Sahel region, South Sudan, and jihadist insurgencies in Somalia and Mozambique.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent Western sanctions “have shaken African economies and left many in profound misery,” according to ICG, with food prices skyrocketing.
While Europe’s internal market is linked by energy pipelines, highways, railways, and flight routes, Africa is lagging behind, hampered by aging infrastructure and corruption.
Analysts believe that for Africa to attain the desirable single market, hurdles ranging from pervasive red tape to entrenched protectionism in some nations must be overcome
“There is a declared political will, but it will take a long time to put in place,” Paul-Simon Handy, regional director of the Institute for Security Studies in Addis Ababa, told AFP.
Dorine Nininahazwe, African Union director of US-headquartered non-profit ONE Campaign, agreed.
“There are fears from certain African countries that with opening borders, they will have an influx of people they cannot control,” Nininahazwe told AFP.
The summit, long criticised for being ineffectual, will also aim to address the raging conflict in eastern DR Congo.
Rebels, many of them a legacy of regional wars that flared during the 1990s and the early 2000s, have sown chaos in the mineral-rich east and sparked a diplomatic row with neighbouring Rwanda, which is accused of backing the M23 militia.
The African Union scored some success in November last year in fostering a peace deal in Ethiopia between the federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front.
Sudan, Mali, Guinea and Burkina Faso, four countries that have witnessed military coups, will also be seeking to rejoin the AU.
But their chances are limited, according to Handy.
“The reintegration of these juntas into the AU would be a total renunciation, it will not be the priority at all,” he said.
Comoros President Azali Assoumani, leader of the small Indian Ocean archipelago of almost 900,000 people, is due to take over the one-year rotating AU chairmanship from Senegal’s Macky Sall.
The 64-year-old Assoumani will “require the support of other senior African leaders to discharge the role, given his country’s limited diplomatic heft”, according to ICG.
At least 35 presidents and four prime ministers will be attending the summit, Ethiopia’s foreign ministry spokesman Meles Alem said on Tuesday, without giving names.
So far, Nigeria, South Africa, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Mozambique, Lesotho, Botswana and Congo-Brazzaville have confirmed they will be sending their presidents.
Last year, unease flared over the accreditation of Israel as an observer at the AU, triggering a rare dispute within a body that values consensus.
The summit suspended a debate on whether to withdraw the accreditation and a committee was formed to address the issue. It is not clear if AU will take up the matter this year
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