Events across the country in the last few months have taken dangerous dimensions. Quality of life has plummeted while the cost of living is rising astronomically. There is hunger and lots of difficulties across the length and breadth of this country.
In the last two weeks, a series of protests related to the high cost of living were staged in different Nigerian cities. There is palpable tension and apprehension all over the place because of people’s inability to meet up with the basic expectations of life. Food prices have soared beyond the reach of the ordinary and several unordinary Nigerians because of the two reforms embarked on by this government which many of us supported at the beginning and now appears that the government did not take into consideration several factors expected to occasion and support such fundamental reforms.
The withdrawal of subsidies on petroleum products and floating of the Naira was thought by several of us as the foundation of liberalising the economy. Still, it will appear that those who make economic decisions for this government are either ill-informed about the dynamics of international economics and their effects on national economies or are mere tools in the hands of international finance capital.
The twin evil seems to bite so hard that anger reigns palpable all over the country. Withdrawal of subsidy has since been reversed and the government seems to be paying even higher than what was paid during the last regime. The reason is simple. The Naira depreciates by day, in the last 8 months of this administration, we have seen how the naira fell from a little over 700 to a dollar in the parallel market in May 2023 to over 1,800 naira to the dollar by the 20th of February 2024. This is what Nigerians call the Naira free fall which has a multiplier effect on virtually every aspect of national life.
What President Tinubu, his wife and a few other people in government keep telling us is that things will get better and that the difficulties are temporary. The reverse is the case because the Naira is now an orphan left to the vagaries of the so-called market forces. Nigeria has seen a decline in the value of its currency by more than 200% within a few months. This I am sure is a record-breaking disaster which no economy in peacetime has ever experienced.
The worry is that our economic decision-makers are either keeping mute or telling us that things will get better, but they never say how or when. I am afraid that there is a glaring failure facing the nation and if care and responsibility are not taken urgently and immediately by the government, the people may take to the streets and that will have serious and dangerous consequences for the wellbeing of Nigeria. I strongly align with Senator Ali Ndume who said that ‘these Lagos boys think that Nigeria is Lagos, they forget that Lagos is in Nigeria’ maybe that’s why the Lagos ‘magic’ isn’t working in the rest of the country.
Nobody seems to be in control of the economy as the thinkers and decision-makers have resigned the naira to its fate. No intervention and it is falling on a minute-by-minute basis this is causing severe and untold hardship as all lives have been tied to this hopelessly useless currency called the Dollar.
No country or government on the surface of the earth subjects its fundamentals to the whims and caprices of outside forces except Nigeria’s. How does one explain this crass irresponsibility of our officials as they wait akimbo and see the currency depreciate every minute? Time seems to be running out while those who ought to know better are deep in their slumber.
It is irresponsible of the government to allow its currency to fall so drastically in value and watch its citizens in pain and agony while those in higher authority continue to rebel in ostentation. The Naira is the weakest currency in the world today and our government is telling us by the minute to remain patient that the pains are temporary. I believe our elected officials are taking us for a ride and there must be a change in approach and strategy of management of the economy if they desire peace and stability in the polity.
What is apparent is that those in charge are oblivious to the fact that all they try to do is meet up with the terms and conditions of the Washington Consensus Group, a cartel that supports Western economies but suffocates those of the third world nations. The Washington group condemns and even topples regimes that try to cut away and evolve economic policies for the good of their countries and peoples. Whenever you hear the World Bank, IMF or any of these multilateral supporting and singing praises of the economic policies of any African Government, rest assured that the governments are running contrary to the aspirations of their people and looking closely, you will find that the people are in difficulties. This is the Nigerian story today. All the cartels are telling our decision-makers is that things will get better, and the Lagos experts are blindly agreeing and following.
No serious nation subjects its currency to the vagaries of so-called market forces. Serious governments protect their currencies and guide them to remain stable. The new Nigerian economists tell us that there are two conditions necessary for the naira to regain value. One, there must be improvement in the production capacity of the nation and secondly Nigeria must have a strong foreign reserve to help the Naira.
These two propositions are fake and unsustainable in the present circumstances and unlikely to be realized in the near future. It will take sustained efforts to achieve. What it means therefore is that the naira will continue to fall freely and mercilessly which will be translated into increasing difficulties in the country and for sure the recipe for crises and doom.
The government must wake up to its responsibility. It must guide the currency through sustained policies and stop this unfortunate Precambrian belief and attitude that the naira can find its true value in the market. How to manage, the currencies in Niger Republic, Benin, and Togo among others are more stable than the naira? Do these countries have stronger industrial capacities or bigger foreign reserves? Definitely no! What they have probably are better ruling classes who are prepared to defend their currencies.
The Tinubu administration needs to listen to the alternative explanations on ways the economy is to be managed and stop this slave mentality approach to World Bank/IMF dogmas that are dragging the nation into unfortunate situations. The problem is huge and will require radical and proactive political brinkmanship to rescue the naira, save the economy and return Nigeria to the path of peace. This is urgent and we hope that those who hear, and matter will hear and act in good time.
Professor Mato writes from the Department of Political Science & International Relations, University of Abuja
