There are five governors who are at the end of their second and final terms in office, who will be contesting senatorial seats on February 25, the same day a new president and another set of members of the House of Representatives would be elected.
These governors swam the murky political waters to the end of their tenures and making it to the Senate would be like passing the camel through the eye of a needle.
Samuel Ortom – Benue
Governor Samuel Ortom of Benue State would be contesting for the Benue West Senatorial zone on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
He has the state resources and the PDP structures at his disposal as well as the incumbency factor which makes it look like an easy sail for him. But one obstacle in his way is the National Chairman of his party, Dr. Iyorchia Ayu who, together with the party’s presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, are at the receiving end of brickbats by the G5 governors, which Ortom belongs to. The combined power of Atiku and Ayu is a huge mountain before Ortom.
Having survived an expulsion plot by the PDP on February 17 in a Benue court, there seemed to be respite for the governor but he had more demons to deal with.
Ortom has another formidable foe in a former governor of the state, George Akume, who is highly revered in Benue politics. Also, the candidates of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Labour Party (LP) Titus Zam and Mark Gbillah respectively, could constitute some major obstacles against Ortom.
Zam used to be Ortom’s ally until they fell apart and he moved to the APC to pick the ticket to contest against Ortom. The sweeping love for the APC governorship candidate in the state Rev. Fr. Hyacinth Alia is a great booster for Zam and this could unsettle Ortom.
Ortom also has foes in civil servants and pensioners in the state due to unpaid wages and pensions. These factors may rob Ortom of some measurable electoral goodwill that may count against him on February 25.
In addition to this, Ortom’s recent endorsement of LP presidential candidate, Peter Obi, may also count against him as some of his party members appear not to be on the same page with him on the issue, which they regard as anti-party.
Okezie Ikpeazu – Abia
The outgoing governor of Abia State, Okezie Ikpeazu’s quest to represent Abia South in the Senate has set the Igbo socio-cultural organization, Ohanaeze Ndigbo on internal fire as the members are divided on who to back between Ikpeazu and incumbent Sen. Enyinnaya Abaribe who has been in the Senate for 16 years.
Both politicians bask in the euphoria of their respective incumbency powers. While Ikpeazu has the state resources at his disposal to wriggle his way through, for the Senate he is a novice, whereas Abaribe is already an ‘institution.’
The platform on which Ikpeazu is set to achieve his senatorial ambition, the PDP, is in disarray in the state and at the national level. In the state, a former commissioner, Dr. Sampson Orji is leading a faction in the state against the governor. Orji is rather routing for Abaribe.
Also, Ikpeazu is among the G5 Governors who turned their back on the PDP’s presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar.
APC chieftain in Rivers State, Dakuku Peterside, while writing off the G5 governors, specifically mentioned that Ikpeazu has some challenges to resolve in his home state.
A recent report quoted Peterside as saying Ikpeazu, who he referred to as his good friend “…must take cognisance of the local situation in his state before making any political decision. Obviously, his best bet is to remain with his party, the PDP.”
This means things might prove really tight for Ikpeazu.
Ben Ayade – Cross River
After winning the Cross River All Progressives Congress (APC) senatorial seat for Cross River North, Governor Ben Ayade has challenges to deal with to make it the Red Chambers.
Ayade’s problem started with his losing the first primary election on May 28, 2022, where he scored the lowest votes of 52 against the winner Barrister Cecilia Adams’ 140 votes, and the first runner-up Drim Martin Ojei who garnered 61 votes. Respite however came his way when Martin Ojei withdrew in the second primary election that saw Ayade contesting as a lone candidate and scoring 252 of the 255 votes cast.
The governor is reported not to have won any election outside the PDP since 1999 as Cross River state has always voted for the PDP.
The Labour Party (LP) is reportedly gaining widespread acceptance in the state due to what observers say is as a result of Ayade’s unimpressive performance, as well as the near absence of the APC in the state.
The governor also has to contend with opposition from two quarters – the Inter-Party Advisory Council (IPAC) and a Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN), Mba Ukweni.
IPAC has accused Ayade of trying to divide the ranks of its members and making slanderous statements against the organisation. It is demanding a retraction failing which it would head to court.
Similarly, Ukweni has accused Ayade of protecting a murder suspect in the state while blackmailing the PDP’s House of Representatives candidate for Obudu, Bekwarra and Obanliku Federal Constituency seat in the forthcoming election, Peter Akpanke, over the same matter.
All these coming few days to the election could cause a distraction for and undermine Ayade’s fortunes at the polls.
Abubakar Sani Bello – Niger
There had been rumours about a face-off between Governor Abubakar Sani Bello of Niger State and Senator Sabi Abdullahi (APC, Niger North) but things came to a head a few weeks back when citing an order from above, operatives from both the military and police locked up and cordoned the New Bussa Township stadium in Borgu venue of a rally for the APC presidential candidate, Bola Tinubu.
For Bello, seeking to go to the Senate on the party’s platform, it is a crisis that could affect his chances. The governor is in tango with Senator Abdullahi who is the leader of the political group known as Project 774, who reportedly organised the rally, tagged “Grand Lockdown Rally.”
The clash can be understood as the governor is gunning to unseat Abdullahi who is currently the Deputy Whip of the Senate.
The first sign of trouble was when Abdullahi rejected the result of the primary won by the governor. The incumbent Senator alleged that the process was compromised, and has rejected all moves for reconciliation.
The question people are asking however is how the governor intends to win the people’s votes when he has not carried out campaigns in the senatorial zone.
Also, the people have expressed misgivings with Governor Bello’s handling of the security challenges which have kept investors away from the state, this is coupled with several deaths that have been recorded due to the capsizing of many canoes in the state, with no intervention from the state government. These too could count against Bello at the polls on February 25.
Atiku Bagudu – Kebbi
Word on the street in Kebbi State is that February 25 would be payback day for governor Atiku Abubakar Bagudu for pushing the strong man of Kebbi politics, Senator Adamu Aliero, out of the ruling APC in the state.
Both men are squaring up against each other for the Kebbi central senatorial seat and it is set to be battle royale.
When the fight between the duo got underway, many of the Aliero loyalists he had ‘loaned’ Bagudu hurriedly returned to the PDP, waiting for their master to join them. And in no time, Aliero joined them, leaving Bagudu in APC like a dried famished tree standing in the desert.
Those who know Kebbi politics well even said Bagudu was part of Aliero’s army of loyalists. In fact, Aliero was reported to be instrumental to Bagudu becoming governor in 2015.
The seed of the tango between master and servant was sown in January 2021 when Bagudu seized Aliero over the soul of the ruling APC in the state as both men tried to install their political godsons. Bagudu went for the Minister of Justice Abubakar Malami while Aliero wanted to install Senator Yahaya Abdullahi.
Aliero, not wanting to drag the matter, left the APC for the PDP to set the stage for the hot contest. The people of the state said Aliero is not just popular but acceptable, because he has made many politicians to become what they are today and helped many a lot. A record they said Bagudu cannot match in the nearest future. They also said Bagudu is tight-fisted. This could translate to lesser votes for Bagudu in favour of Aliero.
Seyi Makinde – Oyo
As a member of the G5 governors, Seyi Makinde may have lost sight of what could become of his ambition of a second term due to his opposition against his party’s presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar.
Makinde may have thought things would be smooth for him by aligning with the G5 but things appear to have turned sour even among them as they have been unable to maintain a united front as it concerns the choice of who to support for the presidential election
It became clear at the end of January that there was division among them when the five governors failed to announce their choice of presidential candidate as promised, a situation that made many of their supporters lose faith in them.
They also lost the sympathy, followership, respect and integrity of not a few persons, after turning down peace overtures by the Atiku camp at least five different times, giving the impression that they are a group of people who are too rigid.
Sometime back, the leadership of the PDP in the state staged a rally that not only declared support for Atiku but rejected Makinde. This set the tone of what was afoot for Makinde. With time, the PDP umbrella became a hot balloon for Makinde, and he started scampering for an outlet.
He tried to exploit the reported alliance of G5 with Tinubu on one hand and on the other, with the Social Democratic Party (SDP). No sooner had the alliance been made public than the SDP hurriedly rejected both Tinubu and Makinde.
If within his PDP fold, Makinde could not find a good reception for his second-term ambition, opposition parties are equally no-go areas for him as they are squaring up against him.
He has very experienced APC’s Teslim Folarin and Accord Party’s Adebayo Adelabu who is also into an alliance with other parties to contend with. Both men are no push over by any means.
Now almost out of the G5, coupled with his rejection by the state PDP leadership and a failed alliance with the SDP, Makinde’s chances of a second term after the March 11 election look dangerously slim.
