Nigerians go to the polls on Saturday, February 25 to elect a new president in an election that many described as a watershed in the nation’s political history.
With over 93 million registered voters, Nigeria’s democratic credentials will be put to the test once again as Africa’s most populous country attempts another civilian transfer of power in its 34-years of uninterrupted democratic rule.
A few weeks ago, I wrote in this column denoting the significance of Saturday’s presidential election, alluding that the outcome will likely have far-reaching ramifications for the country.
The nation is now poised to hold its 7th consecutive elections since the beginning of the Fourth Republic with trepidation heightened by the possibility of political violence and social unrest. Tension is palpably high as we peer into the dark-tunnelled mouth of the D-Day, And it seems to be a familiarly recurring issue with elections in Nigeria. Already, bedeviled by rising criminality and secessionist violence in the South East, subduing insurgency in the North East and banditry in the North West, Nigerians head into the February 25 polls overburdened by incessant fuel scarcity and an excruciating cash crunch.
Muhammadu Buhari, who will be completing his eight-year tenure as president in May this year, has promised to superintend and deliver an election that’s impartial and transparent. A very tall order if you take into account Nigeria’s insipid electoral history.
The national electoral umpire, INEC, has assured Nigerians of its readiness to conduct a free and transparent polls that every Nigerian will be proud of. This is despite the cash crunch, logistic hiccups and a growing spate of violence and destruction of INEC offices and facilities in the southeastern part of the country.
The electoral body is deploying the BVAS, a biometric machine, in this year’s polls to ensure hitch-free, transparent voter accreditation and tackle electoral fraud.
Eighteen presidential candidates are vying for the country’s plum job with four major candidates. Each of Nigeria’s three major ethnic groups are represented among the serious contenders, making the 2023 race as dicey as they come. The two front-runners are the ruling party candidate Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, a Yoruba and former governor of Lagos State, and former vice president Atiku Abubakar of Hausa-Fulani descent, who is the candidate of the main opposition party. The two other dark horses are the Labour Party’s Peter Obi also a former governor of Igbo extraction, and former Kano State governor Rabiu Kwankwaso, also a Hausa-Fulani. He’s the flagbearer of the newly formed NNPP. Second-guessing how people will vote can be very daunting.
But having no incumbent seeking re-election may increase the chances of an opposition party victory. While this might not seem like a straight jacket – it has clearly increased the risk of no clear winner from the first round of balloting under the constitution’s formula that requires both a plurality of votes and a geographical distribution of support. A runoff has never before taken place, and the electoral body would have only a week to organize it.
Meanwhile, a decision by President Buhari to redesign the naira ahead of the presidential election and implement a nationwide cash squeeze, banning the N500 and N1000 notes has sparked a civil war within the ruling APC. The president said he’s implementing the policy to curb fraud and vote-buying. Some aggrieved governors dragged the president to the Supreme Court asking it to void the federal government’s cashless policy.
Some APC big wigs had pointed fingers at the president’s inner circle as the subterranean force working against Tinubu’s candidacy and the party’s interest. Buhari was, however, compelled to deliver a terse message to Nigerians on the issue, urging the electorate to vote massively for the former Lagos governor in the presidential election.
What effect will this have on Tinubu’s chances on Saturday? Will the Lion of Boudillon weather the Naira redesign policy storm and coast to victory at the polls? Or will Atiku be lucky now on his fifth attempt at the nation’s most coveted office? Are we going to have, for the first time ever, a presidential runoff? Your guess is as good as mine.
