China’s population decreased for the first time in six decades last year, a historic reversal that is believed to signal the start of a long era of fall in its citizen numbers with far-reaching ramifications for the country’s economy and the rest of the world.
The National Bureau of Statistics recorded a reduction of around 850,000 persons in 2022 for a population of 1.41175 billion, the first decline since 1961, the final year of China’s Great Famine.
As a result, India may become the world’s most populous country. Last year, United Nations scientists anticipated that India would have 1.412 billion people in 2022, though they did not expect the South Asian country to beat China until this year.
India, on the other hand, only collects demographic data every ten years, and its most recent census, originally slated for 2021, has been postponed owing to the pandemic.
Long-term, UN scientists predict that China’s population would fall by 109 million by 2050, more than double the decline predicted in 2019.
Domestic demographers are worried that China may become old before it becomes rich, stalling the economy as revenues fall and government debt rises due to rising health and welfare bills.
“China’s demographic and economic outlook is much bleaker than expected. China will have to adjust its social, economic, defense and foreign policies,” said demographer Yi Fuxian.
He went on to say that the country’s declining labor force and manufacturing slump would worsen high pricing and rising inflation in the United States and Europe.
“Economic growth will have to depend more on productivity growth,” added Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.
Kang Yi, chairman of the national statistics agency, rejected concerns about the population reduction, telling reporters that “total labour supply still exceeds demand”.
Last year, China’s birth rate was 6.77 births per 1,000 people, down from 7.52 births in 2021 and the lowest rate on record.
According to Kang, the number of Chinese women of reproductive age, defined by the government as 25 to 35, has decreased by around 4 million.
The death rate was 7.37 fatalities per 1,000 people, the highest since 1974 during the Cultural Revolution, compared to 7.18 deaths in 2021.
IMPACT OF ONE-CHILD POLICY
Much of the demographic collapse is the result of China’s one-child policy, which was implemented between 1980 and 2015, as well as sky-high education expenditures, which have discouraged many Chinese from having more than one child, if any at all.
A deep gender imbalance has also resulted from the one-child policy and a historic predilection for sons. According to the most recent figures, China has approximately 722 million males and 690 million females. In recent years, fewer families have been produced as a result of the imbalance, which is more severe in rural areas.
Following the release of the results on Tuesday, the data became the top trending subject on Chinese social media. One hashtag, “#Is it really necessary to have children?” received hundreds of millions of views.
“The fundamental reason why women do not want to have children lies not in themselves, but in the failure of society and men to take up the responsibility of raising children. For women who give birth this leads to a serious decline in their quality of life and spiritual life,” posted one netizen with the username Joyful Ned.
Chinese netizens have also previously complained about pressure on newlyweds to have offspring as soon as possible, reporting regular calls from their local government asking when they can expect a pregnancy.
Searches for baby strollers on China’s Baidu search engine fell 17% in 2022 and are down 41% since 2018, while searches for baby bottles have declined by more than a third since 2018. Searches for aged care facilities, on the other hand, increased eightfold last year.
In India, Google Trends reveals a 15% year-on-year growth in searches for baby bottles in 2022, while searches for cribs increased nearly fivefold.
reuters
