Nigerian politics is not for the faint-hearted. It is a battlefield where alliances are fleeting, betrayal is commonplace, and survival is the only ideology that matters. If power were a chessboard, then the pieces are constantly being reshuffled—not according to any coherent strategy but by an instinct for self-preservation. The latest wave of defections, with Nasir El-Rufai and his co-travellers making a dramatic exit to the Social Democratic Party (SDP), is yet another example of how Nigerian politicians treat political parties as mere vehicles, easily discarded when a shinier, more advantageous one appears on the horizon.
Greg Power’s Inside the Political Mind: The Human Side of Politics and How It Shapes Development offers a useful framework for understanding these manoeuvres. He argues that political institutions are not the main drivers of governance; rather, it is the behaviours, motivations, and survival instincts of politicians that shape how systems function. In Nigeria, where political defections are as common as fuel price hikes, this observation rings particularly true.
Defections: The Perennial Game of Survival
The decamping from one party to another is not new. In 2014, we witnessed a grand exodus from the PDP to the APC, a move that led to the fall of Goodluck Jonathan’s administration. Now, in 2024, the reverse is happening. The once-mighty APC is bleeding members, and SDP is emerging as a new sanctuary for political survivalists. But let’s be clear—this is not about ideology. Nigerian politicians rarely switch parties because they have had an epiphany about governance. They do so because they see the shifting sands of power and want to remain relevant in 2027.
Sun Tzu, in The Art of War, famously said, “Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak.” This is precisely how Nigerian politicians operate. Those abandoning ship are not necessarily weak; they are repositioning themselves to ensure they remain at the center of power when the next election cycle comes around. The APC may still control the presidency, but its internal fractures are glaring. Sensing this, defectors are pre-emptively seeking new platforms that could serve as launchpads for their 2027 ambitions.
Politics, Not Governance, Is the Focus
One of the most frustrating aspects of Nigerian politics is that it is centered more on political positioning than on governance. As Power notes in his book, many politicians are not necessarily interested in strengthening institutions. They are more invested in playing the game of power. In such an environment, reform becomes secondary, and every action is dictated by what will secure an individual’s position in the next political cycle.
The recent defections prove that Nigerian politics is still driven by personal ambition rather than public service. Why else would a politician leave a party they helped build, in which they have held influential positions, to join another party that, until now, was a political afterthought? The answer lies in strategy, not principle. The presidency is the ultimate prize, and every move must be calculated to secure proximity to it.
In Game of Thrones, the character Varys, known as the Spider, perfectly encapsulates this mindset: “Power resides where men believe it resides.” Nigerian politicians are keen observers of this reality. If a party begins to lose credibility or internal cohesion, they will flee – not because they have lost faith in its ideology (that was never the concern) but because they perceive its chances of retaining power as diminishing.
The Illusion of a New Political Force
For all the excitement surrounding the SDP’s sudden rise in prominence, one must ask: is this truly a new political force, or is it just another temporary shelter for wandering politicians? Nigerian history suggests the latter. In 2019, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) briefly gained traction as a third-force party, only to fade into irrelevance once election season ended. The SDP may very well follow the same trajectory unless it offers something genuinely different.
Power’s book argues that real political change happens when institutions, not individuals, are strengthened. However, Nigerian politicians are not interested in institution-building. They are interested in winning. And when a party is no longer a winning platform, it becomes disposable.
This is why defections, no matter how dramatic, rarely translate into meaningful change. The same individuals who are jumping ship today will likely realign again tomorrow. Just as in Game of Thrones, where noble houses switch allegiances not for the good of the realm but for their own survival, Nigerian politicians will continue to move wherever the winds of power blow.
The 2027 Calculations Have Begun
The game is now fully in motion. The SDP is positioning itself as a viable alternative, the APC is trying to hold its ground, and the PDP is hoping to capitalize on the ruling party’s troubles. In the background, the Labour Party and NNPP are also making moves, but without the heavyweight defectors that could tilt the scales in their favour.
Sun Tzu advised, “Opportunities multiply as they are seized.” Nigerian politicians understand this perfectly. They are already forming alliances, forging new relationships, and preparing to stake their claims. But the real question is: will this lead to better governance, or is it just another round of political musical chairs?
The People’s Role in This Game
While politicians scheme, the Nigerian people remain spectators in this high-stakes drama. Power’s book emphasizes that meaningful political change requires pressure from the electorate. However, Nigerian voters have largely resigned themselves to these cycles of defections and betrayals. There is outrage on social media whenever a big-name politician switches parties, but the cycle of acceptance soon follows. The electorate moves on, and politicians continue their machinations, unchallenged.
One lesson from Game of Thrones is that the smallfolk—the everyday people—rarely have a say in who sits on the Iron Throne. But when they do rise, they can change the course of history. Nigerian voters have this power, but only if they choose to wield it.
What Comes Next?
As the battle for 2027 heats up, more defections are inevitable. Expect nocturnal meetings, strategic alliances, and carefully staged declarations of a “new political movement.” The truth, however, is that nothing has changed. The same players are merely switching jerseys, waiting for the next match.
Sun Tzu warns, “The wise warrior avoids the battle.” Nigerian politicians are already avoiding battles that do not serve their personal interests. The real question is: will Nigerians continue to allow themselves to be mere spectators in this ruthless arena, or will they finally demand a different kind of politics?
Only time will tell. But if history is any guide, the game will continue, and the players will keep moving—always in search of power, never in pursuit of true change.
