The recently signed 2025 budget by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu — totalling a staggering ₦54.99 trillion — has once again placed Nigeria’s fiscal priorities under the spotlight. While the document boasts a significant allocation for capital expenditure, a closer look reveals glaring misplacements that threaten to deepen the country’s socio-economic challenges rather than resolve them.
One of the most troubling highlights is the overwhelming allocation to debt servicing, pegged at ₦14.32 trillion in one section and ₦15.81 trillion in another — an inconsistency that itself raises questions about transparency and accuracy. Either way, debt servicing now surpasses the combined education, health, and infrastructure allocations, consuming over 25% of the entire budget. This is a dangerous signal that Nigeria is sinking deeper into a debt trap, prioritizing payments to creditors over the welfare and future of its citizens. If this trend continues unchecked, the country risks mortgaging the next generation’s development prospects just to stay afloat.
Equally disturbing is the meagre allocation to health — just 4.99% of the budget. At a time when the nation’s healthcare system remains fragile, underfunded, and overstretched, this figure falls far below the 15% Abuja Declaration commitment made by African leaders in 2001. Nigeria’s health indices — from maternal mortality to life expectancy — remain among the worst globally. Yet, instead of reversing this dangerous trend, the budget undercuts a sector that directly affects the survival and productivity of its population. A nation that cannot keep its citizens healthy cannot expect to achieve sustainable development.
The education sector fares no better, with only 7.08% of the budget allocated. This is not just disappointing but outright dangerous for a country battling with one of the world’s largest populations of out-of-school children. Across Nigeria, the story is the same — dilapidated classrooms, underpaid teachers, outdated curricula, and underfunded research institutions. By ignoring the UNESCO-recommended 15-20% allocation to education, the government is setting the country up for long-term intellectual poverty, which will cripple innovation, economic growth, and social cohesion. No nation has ever developed without heavy investment in education. If this sector continues to be neglected, Nigeria risks breeding a generation ill-prepared to compete in the knowledge-driven global economy.
Ironically, defense and security continue to command a significant 9.87% of the budget, yet insecurity remains pervasive. From insurgency in the North-East to banditry, kidnapping, and communal clashes, Nigeria remains unsafe. The question arises: what justifies this enormous spending if the country is still grappling with widespread insecurity? The issue here is not just the size of the allocation, but the efficiency of its use. For years, Nigerians have watched defence budgets balloon without seeing commensurate improvements in national security. It is high time to rethink this strategy. Security is essential, but throwing more money at the problem without addressing governance and accountability is a losing game.
Perhaps the most questionable allocation is the ₦430.7 billion earmarked for the National Youth Service Corps (NYSC), including ₦72.9 billion for corps members’ allowances. While the NYSC program has noble intentions, this level of funding is excessive, especially when millions of Nigerian youths remain unemployed, underemployed, or lack access to quality vocational training. The irony is glaring — we invest heavily in a program designed to expose young graduates to national service but fail to prepare them for life afterwards. Many see the NYSC year as a mere formality rather than a meaningful tool for national integration or empowerment. Redirecting part of this budget to job creation, skills acquisition, or youth entrepreneurship programs would have a more lasting impact on tackling Nigeria’s alarming youth unemployment rate.
On the economic front, the exchange rate assumption of ₦1,500 to $1 reflects a grim reality — the severe weakening of the naira. Such a figure not only signals poor macroeconomic management but also translates to increased inflation, eroded purchasing power, and worsening poverty levels for the average Nigerian. A weak currency is a tax on the poor, making everything — from food to fuel — more expensive.
While the budget tries to strike a balance with a ₦23.96 trillion capital expenditure, sustainability remains questionable when a large chunk of this will likely be funded through additional borrowing. This further widens the budget deficit, now standing at ₦13.08 trillion or 3.89% of GDP, compounding Nigeria’s already precarious debt burden. Rather than financing capital projects through more loans, the government should focus on expanding its revenue base, curbing wastage, and plugging leakages.
In conclusion, Nigeria’s 2025 budget is a classic case of misplaced priorities. By allocating more resources to debt servicing and recurrent costs while underfunding essential sectors like health and education, the government risks perpetuating a cycle of poverty, insecurity, and underdevelopment. The budget reflects a country caught in the trap of survival spending rather than strategic investment.
What Nigeria needs is a budget that reflects long-term thinking — one that reduces dependency on debt, prioritizes human capital development, and lays a solid foundation for sustainable economic growth. Until then, no amount of fiscal gymnastics or creative accounting will lift Nigeria out of its current economic quagmire.
Mr Salihu can be reached at msalihu@gmail.com | Twitter: @mssalihu
